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| 单站暴雨客观预报的一种适用模型 | |
| 引用本文： | 黄永玉,谢水兰,李霖.单站暴雨客观预报的一种适用模型[J].气象科技,2005,33(3):204-208. |
| 作者姓名： | 黄永玉 谢水兰 李霖 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 南京信息工程大学,南京,210044;福建省南平市气象局,南平,353000 2. 福建省建阳市气象局,建阳,354200 3. 福建省南平市气象局,南平,353000 |
| 基金项目： | 福建省科技厅“福建省中尺度灾害性天气预警系统在防洪抗旱中应用研究”课题资助 |
| 摘 要： | 采用滑动分区车贝雪夫多项式展开模型，研制福建省建阳市单站5～6月暴雨客观预报模型，以提高单站暴雨预报能力。模型取得了较好的结果：客观预报模型因子结构简单而天气学意义明了，具有预报准确率较高、稳定性好。各预报模型的三层形势特征都能体现出有利于暴雨生成的合理垂直配置。在2000～2002年的试用中，准确率平均比主观预报高出50％，且无漏报。在2003年的试用中无空报也无漏报。这表明该技术模型是一种能够有效提高单站暴雨客观预报能力和效果的适用模型。 |
| 关 键 词： | 暴雨 单站 客观预报 适用 预报模型 预报能力 多项式展开 预报准确率 2002年 2003年 滑动分区 形势特征 技术模型 建阳市 福建省 天气学 子结构 稳定性 试用 漏报 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年4月5日 |
Single Station Objective Forecast Model of Torrential Rainfall |
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| Huang Yongyu,Xie Shuilan Li Lin.Single Station Objective Forecast Model of Torrential Rainfall[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2005,33(3):204-208. | |
| Authors: | Huang Yongyu Xie Shuilan Li Lin |
| Institution: | Huang Yongyu 1,3 Xie Shuilan 2 Li Lin 3 |
| Abstract: | By means of the sliding-window Chebyshev expansion technique, the objective forecast model (OFM) of heavy rainfall from May to June in the Jianyan station was developed in order to improve the capability of single-station rainfall forecasting. The results show that the objective forecast factors have clear meteorological meaning though simple and the advantages of high prediction accuracy and good stability; the characteristics of the weather patterns at three levels for various models exhibit the reasonable vertical collocations favorable to rainfall process development. The trial use in 2000 and 2002 indicates that the average accuracy of rainfall prediction of OFM is about 50% higher than that of the subjective, and there is no failure in 3 years, especially no miss and failure in 2003. It is indicated that the model is efficient and applicable for the improvement of single station rainfall prediction. |
| Keywords: | single station heavy rainfall forecast sliding-window Chebyshev expansion expansion coefficient |
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