| 湖北省春季暴雨落区数值预报模型和指标 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 施望芝,金琪,刘静,张海燕,顾永刚.湖北省春季暴雨落区数值预报模型和指标[J].气象科技,2005,33(4):300-304. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 施望芝 金琪 刘静 张海燕 顾永刚 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 湖北省气象局武汉中心气象台,武汉,430074 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 数值预报产品已广泛应用于基层台站，但对于其丰富的物理量预报产品的解释应用还不够。文章利用T106物理量预报产品，结合常规气象资料，对1998～2001年湖北省春季暴雨天气过程进行了诊断分析，重点分析了有利于产生暴雨的多个物理要素，发现了产生暴雨的一些物理量及其值的结构特征，包括不同的物理要素场形态的走向、预报值的大小、上下层的配置，加深了对暴雨发生机制的认识，归纳出湖北省春季暴雨落区、落点的预报模型和指标，在促使暴雨预报准确率有所提高的同时，使暴雨预报更加精细化。
|
| 关 键 词： | 春季暴雨 落区 落点 数值预报 预报模型 指标 数值预报模型 暴雨落区 湖北省 春季 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-03-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-09-16 |
Forecasting Indexes and Model of Spring Heavy Rainfall Location Forecasting in Hubei Province |
| |
| Shi WangZhi;Jin Qi;Liu Jing;Zhang HaiYan;Gu YongGang.Forecasting Indexes and Model of Spring Heavy Rainfall Location Forecasting in Hubei Province[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2005,33(4):300-304. |
| |
| Authors: | Shi WangZhi;Jin Qi;Liu Jing;Zhang HaiYan;Gu YongGang |
| |
| Abstract: | The numerical forecast products had been applied in many stations, but the analysis and application of the rich numerical forecast products were not enough. Using the physical forecast products of T106 and the conventional meteorological data, the spring heavy rainfall events in Hubei Province from 1998 to 2001 were diagnosed and analyzed, focused on the physical factor diagnoses. The results revealed the characteristics of some physical factors and their structure, including the shape, forecast value, hierarchical configuration of various physical factors, which help understand the formation mechanisms of heavy rainfall, work out forecasting indices and the model of spring heavy rainfall location forecasting in Hubei Province, and provide references for finer heavy rain forecasting in the future. |
| |
| Keywords: | spring heavy rainfall raining location numerical weather forecast forecasting model forecasting index |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《气象科技》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《气象科技》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
