| 日照市短时冰雹定时-定点-定量预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 王繁强,陆桂荣,周秀君,张文琴,于怀征.日照市短时冰雹定时-定点-定量预报[J].气象科技,2003,31(4):220-222. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王繁强 陆桂荣 周秀君 张文琴 于怀征 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东省日照市气象局,日照,276826 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1960～2000年青岛、射阳、徐州3站08时探空资料及日照站08时地面气象资料，分析了日照地区出现的16次降雹天气的时空分布特征，在对降雹天气分型的基础上利用积云数值模式计算降雹因子，用降雹因子和单站要素因子建立历史降雹因子个例库，用历史实况资料建立实况个例库，用距离相似法实现日照地区短时冰雹定时、定点、定量的客观预报。
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| 关 键 词： | 冰雹 降雹天气分型 降雹因子 距离相似 客观预报 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002年11月29 |
Amount,Time and Location Forecasting of Hails in Rizhao,Shangdong Province |
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| Wang Fanqiang,Lu Guirong,Zhou,Xiujun,Zhang Wenqin,Yu,Huaizheng.Amount,Time and Location Forecasting of Hails in Rizhao,Shangdong Province[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2003,31(4):220-222. |
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| Authors: | Wang Fanqiang Lu Guirong Zhou Xiujun Zhang Wenqin Yu Huaizheng |
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| Abstract: | The spatial and temporal characteristics of 16 hail events are analyzed by means of radiosonde data from three nearby stations and conventional data of Rizhao Station from 1960 to 2000. Based on the synoptic weather classification, hailing factors are calculated by using the numerical cumulus model. The historical hailing factor case database is established by using the hailing factors and single station data, and a actual case database by using historical observation data. A method for forecasting the amount, time and location of hails in Rizhao, Shangdong Province is developed by means of the distance analog method. |
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| Keywords: | synoptic hail classification hailing factor distance analog objective forecast |
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