| 基于MM5模式的站点降水预报释用方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈力强,韩秀君,张立祥.基于MM5模式的站点降水预报释用方法研究[J].气象科技,2003,31(5):268-272. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈力强 韩秀君 张立祥 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 北京大学物理学院,北京,100871;中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所,沈阳110016
2. 沈阳中心气象台,沈阳,110016 |
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| 摘 要： | 对MM5模式输出产品解释应用，建立县级站点定量降水MOS预报模型。方案为将影响辽宁降水的天气模型归纳为动力诊断模型，从中构造出多个能够较全面反映降水模型特征的综合物理因子；根据站点降水的气候分布特征，对偏态分布的降水量进行正态化处理，处理方案为首先将降水量划分为有雨和无雨两档，然后对有雨样本进行分级、开4次方处理，经分析对比降水量经过正态化处理后建立的预报模型优于未经处理的模型。运用统计方法建立站点降水预报模型，该模型分为晴雨预报模块和雨量预报模块。通过2001和2002年夏季业务试运行表明，该模型对降水有较强的预报能力，较原模式预报水平有一定改进。
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| 关 键 词： | MM5模式 降水预报 释用方法 正态化 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002年11月12 |
Study of Station Precipitation Forecasting Method Based on MM5 Model Output |
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| Chen Liqiang,Han Xiujun Zhang Lixiang.Study of Station Precipitation Forecasting Method Based on MM5 Model Output[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2003,31(5):268-272. |
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| Authors: | Chen Liqiang Han Xiujun Zhang Lixiang |
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| Institution: | Chen Liqiang 1,2 Han Xiujun 3 Zhang Lixiang 3 |
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| Abstract: | A diagnose model is concluded from the synoptic and dynamical model of affecting Liaoning Province precipitation, and some synthesis physical factors are constr ucted. Based on the climate features of precipitation, the partially distributin g precipitation is normalized to satisfy the needs of building steady equations. The precipitation is divided into two sorts (rain, no-rain), and then rain sam p les are normalized with the method of classification and extraction of 4 roots. The precipitation forecasting model, which includes rain probability and precipi tation models, is built with the statistic method. The results of operational ex periments in 2000 show that this model has great capabilities in forecasting rai ns, and the precipitation-normalized model is better than the non-normalized. |
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| Keywords: | method of interpretation and application precipitation forecast MM5 model normalization |
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