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| 内蒙古典型农牧交错区作物优化布局决策分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 白美兰,郝润全,侯琼.内蒙古典型农牧交错区作物优化布局决策分析[J].气象科技,2006,34(4):460-464. |
| 作者姓名： | 白美兰 郝润全 侯琼 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 内蒙古气象科学研究所;内蒙古气象探测资料中心 2. 内蒙古气象科技开发中心,呼和浩特,010051 3. 内蒙古气象科学研究所 |
| 摘 要： | 利用线性规划方法,以赤峰地区的巴林左旗为例,分析了内蒙古典型农牧交错区在各种干旱年型以及干旱年型未定的情况下,农作物的最优种植方案。并将此优化方案结果与实际作物种植情况进行效益分析评价,以验证此方案的增产效益,降低种植风险。结果表明:使用确定型或随机型优化方案,实际产量均有明显增产,并且确定型优化方案的增产效益高于随机型方案。但由于受到长期天气预报技术水平的限制,有时未来的干旱年型难以准确判定,此时使用随机型方案,粮食作物增产效益稳定,风险性低。 |
| 关 键 词： | 农牧交错区 线性规划 粮食作物 优化布局 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-02-16 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-05-17 |
Decision Analysis of Grain Crop Rational Layout in Inner Mongolia Typical Farming-Pastoral Region |
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| Bai Meilan,Hao Runquan,Hou Qiong.Decision Analysis of Grain Crop Rational Layout in Inner Mongolia Typical Farming-Pastoral Region[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2006,34(4):460-464. | |
| Authors: | Bai Meilan Hao Runquan Hou Qiong |
| Institution: | 1 .Inner Mongolia Research Institute of Meteorology, 2 .Inner Mongolia Meteorological ,Sounding Data Center; 3. Inner Mongolia Meteorological Scientific and Technological Center, Huhhot 010051 |
| Abstract: | The grain crop rational layout schemes in various drought conditions are analyzed by means of the linear programming method,taking Balinzuo Qi in Inner Mongolia as an example of the typical farming-pastoral region.In order to verify the yield-increasing effectiveness of the schemes and decrease the planting risk,the comparison analysis and assessment of the results between crop rational layout and reality are made.It is proved that the actual yields of various crops increased through using the optimal schemes,and the yield increase is more evident when drought types were defined compared with the case without defined drought types.However,the crop yield increment is steady with the risk index being lower through adopting the random scheme when the drought type cannot be determined accurately. |
| Keywords: | farming-pastoral region linear programming grain crop rational layout |
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