| 秦巴山区地质灾害成因及预报预警 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵世发,王俊,杜继稳,杜军,高丽,郑光祥,胡晓黎,程晓丹.秦巴山区地质灾害成因及预报预警[J].气象科技,2010,38(2):263-269. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵世发 王俊 杜继稳 杜军 高丽 郑光祥 胡晓黎 程晓丹 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 陕西省商洛市气象局,商洛,726000
2. 陕西省气象局,西安,710015 |
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| 基金项目： | 陕西气象科技创新基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1955～2007年地质灾害与降水资料以及加密乡镇人工监测站、乡镇自动气象站、水文降水资料,分析秦巴山区地质灾害特点、形成机制、灾害发生与降水强度和降水持续时间的关系,用数理统计方法研究地质灾害不同易发区的临界降水指标,并结合气象部门现行精细化气象预报预警业务流程,研制了秦巴山区地质灾害精细化预报预警思路和制作流程,建成了自动运行的地质灾害预报预警业务系统。2008年应用取得较好的预报效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 地质灾害 降水 统计方法 精细化 预报预警 |
| 收稿时间： | 2009/1/12 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2009/7/10 0:00:00 |
Causes of Geological Disasters in Qinling Bashan Area and Their Forecast and Warning |
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| Zhao Shif,Wang Jun,Du Jiwen,Du Jun,Gao Li,Zheng Guangxiang,Hu Xiaoli and Cheng Xiaodan.Causes of Geological Disasters in Qinling Bashan Area and Their Forecast and Warning[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2010,38(2):263-269. |
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| Authors: | Zhao Shif Wang Jun Du Jiwen Du Jun Gao Li Zheng Guangxiang Hu Xiaoli and Cheng Xiaodan |
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| Institution: | Zhao Shifa1 Wang Jun1 Du Jiwen2 Du Jun1 Gao Li1 Zheng Guangxiang1 Hu Xiaoli1 Cheng Xiaodan1(1 Shangluo Meteorological Bureau,Shaanxi Province,Shangluo 726000,2 Shaanxi Provincial Meteorological Bureau,Xi\'an 710015) |
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| Abstract: | The occurrence and development regularity of geologic disasters over the Qinling-Bashan areas are studied statistically by using the geologic disaster and precipitation data from 1955 to 2007,as well as the data from intensive observation,AWS(automatic weather station),and hydrological stations.The formation mechanisms of geologic disasters and relation with the intensity and duration of precipitation are investigated and the critical precipitation indexes for various disaster-prone areas are devised.An aut... |
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| Keywords: | geological disaster precipitation statistic method refinement forecast and warning |
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