| 年最大日雨量极值分布拟合与推算 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 尹文有,郑皎,王继红,程林.年最大日雨量极值分布拟合与推算[J].气象科技,2011,39(2):137-140. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 尹文有 郑皎 王继红 程林 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 兰州大学大气科学学院,兰州,730000;云南省红河州气象局,蒙自,661100
2. 云南省红河州气象局,蒙自,661100 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 云南省气象局课题（D200816）资助 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 采用红河州12个站近48～58年的年最大日雨量资料,用PearsonⅢ型分布、耿贝尔分布、对数正态分布等3种概率分布模型分别进行了拟合,选择拟合最好的分布模型来估算最大给定重现期极值.结果表明:3种分布均能较好地拟合年最大日雨量的分布,在红河州12个站的拟合中,有7个站用耿贝尔分布,4个站用Pearson-Ⅲ分布,1个...
|
| 关 键 词： | 极值 概率分布 x2拟合优度检验 年最大日雨量 |
| 收稿时间： | 2009/12/28 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2010/6/26 0:00:00 |
Fitting and Estimation of Extreme Value Distribution of Annual Diurnal Maximum Rainfall |
| |
| Yin Wenyou,Zheng Jiao,Wang Jihong and Cheng Lin.Fitting and Estimation of Extreme Value Distribution of Annual Diurnal Maximum Rainfall[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2011,39(2):137-140. |
| |
| Authors: | Yin Wenyou Zheng Jiao Wang Jihong and Cheng Lin |
| |
| Institution: | 1 College of Atmosphere Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, 2 Honghe Meteorological Office, Yunnan Province, Mengzi 661100;Honghe Meteorological Office, Yunnan Province, Mengzi 661100;Honghe Meteorological Office, Yunnan Province, Mengzi 661100;Honghe Meteorological Office, Yunnan Province, Mengzi 661100 |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on the annual maximum diurnal rainfall data from 12 metrological stations over Honghe of Yunnan Province in the recent 48 to 58 years,the extreme value distribution of annual maximum diurnal rainfall is fitted with the Pearson-Ⅲ distribution,Gumbel distribution,and logarithmic distribution,and their extreme values at various reappearance periods are calculated by the best probability distribution.The results show that these three probability distribution models can fit well the distribution of annual maximum diurnal rainfall;the fitting results with Gumbel distribution are the best for 7 stations,Pearson-Ⅲ distribution for 4 stations,and lognormal distribution for 1 stations,and they all reached the standards of significance test.For various given reappearance periods,the distribution characteristics of annual maximum diurnal rainfall over Honghe are very similar,and maximum and minimum centers are consistent,higher in South and lower in north. |
| |
| Keywords: | cxtreme value probability distribution χ2 test annual maximum diurnal rainfall ： extreme value probability distribution χ2 test annual maximum diurnal rainfall |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《气象科技》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《气象科技》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
