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| 基于数值模式和多普勒雷达的强对流天气预报技术 | |
| 引用本文： | 周后福,郑媛媛,邱明燕.基于数值模式和多普勒雷达的强对流天气预报技术[J].气象科技,2007,35(5):637-641. |
| 作者姓名： | 周后福 郑媛媛 邱明燕 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 安徽省气象科学研究所,合肥,230031;中国科学院大气物理研究所LASG,北京,100029;安徽省大气科学与卫星遥感重点实验室,合肥,230031 2. 安徽省气象台,合肥,230031 3. 安徽省气象科学研究所,合肥,230031;安徽省大气科学与卫星遥感重点实验室,合肥,230031 |
| 基金项目： | 中国气象局推广项目;中国科学院科研基金 |
| 摘 要： | 基于数值预报模式MM5,结合不稳定指标和能量指标的诊断结果,得到短时潜势预警指标,进行强对流天气0~12 h的短时预报;利用多普勒雷达信息产品提供的强对流天气风暴追踪信息,提取回波的移向和移速信息,进行强对流天气0~1 h的临近预报;均用一个强对流天气过程,来具体说明短时潜势预报和临近预报状况及其与实际情况的对比;应用短时潜势预报技术对近年来强对流天气过程进行了试用。结果表明,上述方法对强对流天气的短时预报、临近预报技术有一定的预报价值。 |
| 关 键 词： | 多普勒雷达 短时潜势预报 临近预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006/9/25 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-09-252007-01-19 |
Prediction of Strong Convective Weather Based on Numerical Model and Doppler Radar |
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| Zhou Houfu,Zheng Yuanyuan and Qiu Mingyan.Prediction of Strong Convective Weather Based on Numerical Model and Doppler Radar[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2007,35(5):637-641. | |
| Authors: | Zhou Houfu Zheng Yuanyuan and Qiu Mingyan |
| Institution: | 1 .Anhui Institute of Meteorology, Hefei 230031 ; 2 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 ; 3 Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Science and Satellite Remote Sensing, Anhui Province; 4 Anhui Provincial Meteorological Office, Hefei 230031 |
| Abstract: | The potential prediction of 0 to 12 hours is conducted for strong convective weather based on MM5 and the diagnosis of instability and energy indexes. The storm-tracing information of Doppler radar is used in the 0 to 1 hour nowcasting of strong convective weather.The storm-tracing information contains the motion direction and velocity of radar echoes.By means of the trial use in severe convective processes,the comparison is made between prediction and real condition.The experiments are conducted on some strong convective weather events in recent years with the short-term potential prediction method.The results show that both methods are valuable in forecasting strong storms. |
| Keywords: | MM5 |
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