| 转折性天气降水预报检验方法及应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 张冰,魏建苏,王文兰,张备.转折性天气降水预报检验方法及应用[J].气象科技,2012,40(3):411-416. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张冰 魏建苏 王文兰 张备 |
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| 作者单位： | 江苏省气象台,南京,210008 |
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| 基金项目： | 淮河流域气象开放研究基金项目（HRM200902）、江苏省气象科研开放基金项目（200907）资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用转折性天气降水检验评估方法,从转折天气预报能力的角度评价了模式降水预报能力。对全球中期T213、日本和德国数值预报模式在2006年9月至2008年8月的降水预报检验评估分析表明:转折天气降水预报能力检验是目前降水检验方法的有效补充。3种模式的转折天气降水预报能力随着预报时效的延长,存在逐渐递减的趋势;短期预报能力分析,T213和日本模式春季最好,而德国模式是夏季最好;48h预报分析,T213和日本模式在长江中下游、华北及东北等部分地区、德国模式在四川盆地和华南部分地区预报效果较好。
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| 关 键 词： | 转折天气 降水预报 检验方法 数值模式 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010/11/15 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2010/12/28 0:00:00 |
A Method for Verifying Precipitation Prediction of Transition Weather |
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| Zhang Bing,Wei Jiansu,Wang Wenlan and Zhang Bei.A Method for Verifying Precipitation Prediction of Transition Weather[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2012,40(3):411-416. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Bing Wei Jiansu Wang Wenlan and Zhang Bei |
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| Institution: | Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, Nanjing 210008;Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, Nanjing 210008;Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, Nanjing 210008;Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, Nanjing 210008 |
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| Abstract: | A method for verifying precipitation predication of transition weather is developed. It focuses on the evaluation of the performance of numerical prediction models from the prediction capability for transition weather. The precipitation predictions from several global medium range numerical prediction models (including China, Japan and German) are selected and verified by using this method during the period from September 2006 to August 2008. The verification results show that the method is an effective complement to the currently used precipitation prediction verification methods. The forecast skills for transition weather tend to decrease with the growth of leadtime. The short range forecast skill analysis indicates that T213 and JMA global models perform better in spring and the German model is the best in summer. But for 48 hour prediction, results are different, depending on the forecast areas. For example, T213 and the JMA model perform better in the middle lower reaches of the Yangtze River and in some parts of North and Northeast China. The German model performs best in Sichuan Basin and South China. |
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| Keywords: | transition weather precipitation predication verification method numerical predication model |
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