| 江苏南部两次暴雨大暴雨过程分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 雷正翠,夏文梅,徐芬,黄文彦,刘梅,刘银峰.江苏南部两次暴雨大暴雨过程分析[J].气象科技,2021,49(1):95-106. |
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| 作者姓名： | 雷正翠 夏文梅 徐芬 黄文彦 刘梅 刘银峰 |
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| 作者单位： | 1 江苏省常州市气象局，常州 213022； 2 中国气象局交通气象重点开放实验室，南京 210008;江苏省气象局，南京 210008;浙江省景宁县气象局，景宁323500 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金面上项目（41575036）、江苏省科技厅自然基金项目（BK20161604）、中国气象局预报员专项（CMAYBY2019 043）、江苏省气象局科研基金项目（KM201602、KM201704、JSYBY201709、JSYBY201708、JSYBY201809）共同资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 2011年6月10日(简称“11·06”)和2017年6月10日(简称“17·06”)在江苏南部出现了两次暴雨-大暴雨过程,本文利用常规观测资料、FNL再分析资料和雷达资料等,对两次过程进行了分析,结果表明:异常的高低纬度环流形势配合,为强降水的发生提供了有利的环流背景。两次过程代表站的物理量场差异较大:“17·06”最大散度值约为“11·06”的2倍;“17·06”最大垂直速度、最大水汽通量散度值约为“11·06”的1.8、1.3倍且大值维持时间均很长。两次过程均为暖区低质心热带海洋型强降水,但“11·06”强回波分散、伸展高度偏低、强度偏弱且无明显强回波的列车效应;“17·06”强回波排列紧密、伸展高度高、强度明显偏强且强回波列车效应明显。螺旋度变化一般提前于降水变化,具有可预报性,可作为大面积降水开始—维持—结束的一个短时(临近)预报因子。VWP产品中大风区底高的变化,有助于判断雷达站附近降水的变化趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | 暴雨-大暴雨 物理量 雷达回波 螺旋度 VWP |
| 收稿时间： | 2020/2/20 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020/8/28 0:00:00 |
Analysis of Two Heavy Rainstorms in Southern Jiangsu |
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| LEI Zhengcui,XIA Wenmei,XU Fen,HUANG Wenyan,LIU Mei,LIU Yinfeng.Analysis of Two Heavy Rainstorms in Southern Jiangsu[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2021,49(1):95-106. |
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| Authors: | LEI Zhengcui XIA Wenmei XU Fen HUANG Wenyan LIU Mei LIU Yinfeng |
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| Institution: | (Changzhou Meteorological Service,Jiangsu,Changzhou 213022;China Meterological Administration Traffic Meteorological Municipal Key Laboratory,Nanjing 210008;Jiangsu Meteorological Service,Nanjing 210008;Jingning Meteorological Service,Zhejiang,Jingning 323500) |
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| Abstract: | On 10June 2011(for short,Process 1106)and on 10June 2017(Process 1706),there occurred two rainstorms in the south of Jiangsu Province.With the conventional observational and FNL reanalysis data and radar data,the two processes are analyzed.The results show that the anomalous high and low latitudinal circulation conditions provided a favorable circulation background for the occurrence of the heavy precipitation.There were great differences between the two processes in the physical quantity fields of the representative stations:the maximum divergence of Process 1706was about twice as big as that of Process 1106;the maximum vertical velocity and maximum water vapor flux divergence of Process 1706 were about 1.8and 1.3times as big as that of Process 1106;and the large values were maintained for a long time.Both processes were characterized by strong tropical precipitation in the warm region;but the strong echo of 1106was dispersing,the extensional height was low,the intensity was weak,and there was no obvioustrain effect"of strong echoes.The strong echoes of Process 1706arranged closely;the extension height was high,the intensity was obviously strong;and thetrain effect"of strong echo was obvious.The change of helicity was generally ahead of that of precipitation,which was predictable and can be used as a predictor of the start,maintenance,and ending of large-area precipitation in short-time forecasting(nowcasting).The change of the bottom height of the high wind zone in VWP(Vertical Wind Profiles)products was helpful to judge the changing trend of precipitation around the radar station. |
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| Keywords: | heavy rainstorm physical quantity radar echo helicity VWP(Vertical Wind Profiles) |
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