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| T639和EC模式对内蒙古主要天气系统的预报性能检验 | |
| 引用本文： | 荀学义,孟雪峰,王学强,胡英华,金迎春,赵斐,拓彦军,张旭.T639和EC模式对内蒙古主要天气系统的预报性能检验[J].气象科技,2014,42(5):832-838. |
| 作者姓名： | 荀学义 孟雪峰 王学强 胡英华 金迎春 赵斐 拓彦军 张旭 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 内蒙古自治区气象台,呼和浩特,010051 2. 锡林郭勒盟气象局,锡林浩特,026000 3. 巴彦淖尔市气象局,临河,015000 |
| 基金项目： | 中国气象局预报员专项项目（CMAYBY2013 012）资助 |
| 摘 要： | 利用2012年T639和EC模式500hPa高度场预报产品及ECMWF客观再分析资料,采用天气学检验方法,对内蒙古主要天气影响系统之西风槽、贝加尔湖冷涡、蒙古冷涡和东北冷涡数值产品的预报性能进行检验。检验结果表明:T639和EC模式产品对内蒙古影响系统具有较好的预报性能,36h内的预报性能更为显著。EC模式产品预报准确率优于T639模式产品,但对内蒙古东部地区影响系统的预报稳定性相对较差。T639模式产品在36h的预报能力比较高,对影响系统的生成时间、槽线位置、移动速度及中心强度4项检验指标预报准确率均在80%以上。EC模式预报产品,48h内对影响系统4项检验指标预报准确率均在80%以上。随着预报时效延长,T639和EC模式产品预报能力均有所下降。两套模式产品与实况相关系数空间分布在各时效均具有显著的相关关系,并且对应相关系数空间分布,T639和EC模式产品标准差的大值中心与相关系数的低值中心基本一致。 |
| 关 键 词： | T模式 EC模式 内蒙古 影响系统 天气学检验 |
| 收稿时间： | 9/6/2013 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2013/12/6 0:00:00 |
Verification and Assessment of Forecasting Performance of General Circulation Systems in Inner Mongolia by T639 and EC Model Products |
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| Xun Xueyi,Meng Xuefeng,Wang Xueqiang,Hu Yinghu,Jin Yingchun,Zhao Fei,Tuo Yanjun and Zhang Xu.Verification and Assessment of Forecasting Performance of General Circulation Systems in Inner Mongolia by T639 and EC Model Products[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2014,42(5):832-838. | |
| Authors: | Xun Xueyi Meng Xuefeng Wang Xueqiang Hu Yinghu Jin Yingchun Zhao Fei Tuo Yanjun and Zhang Xu |
| Institution: | Inner Mongolia Autonomous Regional Meteorological Observatory, Hohhot 010051;Inner Mongolia Autonomous Regional Meteorological Observatory, Hohhot 010051;Xilingol Weather Service,Xilinhot 026000;Inner Mongolia Autonomous Regional Meteorological Observatory, Hohhot 010051;Inner Mongolia Autonomous Regional Meteorological Observatory, Hohhot 010051;Inner Mongolia Autonomous Regional Meteorological Observatory, Hohhot 010051;Bayannur Weather Service, Inner Mongolia, Linhe 015000;Inner Mongolia Autonomous Regional Meteorological Observatory, Hohhot 010051 |
| Abstract: | Based on T639 and EC model data and ECMWF reanalysis data over 500 hPa in 2012, the forecast products are validated by the synoptic verification method in terms of the starting time, moving velocity, trough line position, and central intensity of the weather systems. The results show that the forecasting of synoptic systems in Inner Mongolia is relatively accurate based on T639 and EC models, especially for 36 hour forecasting. The accuracy of EC model forecast products is better than that of the T639 model, but the stability of EC model products is poorer in the eastern region of Inner Mongolia. The accuracy of T639 model products is greater than 80% in the starting time, moving velocity, trough line position, and central intensity of the systems for 36 hour forecasting. The accuracy of EC model products is higher than that of T639 model products, with the accuracy being greater than 80% in four test indexes for 48 hour forecasting. The prediction capabilities of both T639 and EC model products decrease with the increasing of lead time. There is a significantly correlation between forecast and observation for both models, corresponding well with the distribution of correlation coefficients, and the high value centers of standard deviation are in agreement with the low value centers of correlation coefficient. |
| Keywords: | T639 model EC model Inner Mongolia influencing system synoptic verification |
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