| 大雪预报失误个例分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙欣,曲晓波,沈玉敏,陈传雷.大雪预报失误个例分析[J].气象科技,2005,33(1):50-52. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙欣 曲晓波 沈玉敏 陈传雷 |
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| 作者单位： | 沈阳中心气象台,沈阳,110016 |
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| 摘 要： | 2002年11月6～7日大雪天气过程预报有一定难度，降水预报失误较大。在分析数值预报天气形势、气象要素预报的基础上，阐述了当时预报员的预报思路，分析实时天气形势的演变，指出300hPa上亚洲中部的西北或偏西风急流轴逐渐南压，是诱发实时天气形势突变的触发物理机制。上下层高空槽从后倾转为前倾，不利于强烈的上升运动产生。高空引导气流的演变，导致地面气压路径改变、暖湿空气的配置变化，是预报失误的主要原因。
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| 关 键 词： | 天气形势 大雪 个例分析 气象要素预报 高空槽 上升运动 预报员 失误 诱发 改变 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年8月7日 |
A Case Study of Heavy Snow Forecasting Failure |
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| Sun Xin,Qu Xiaobo,Shen Yumin,Chen Chuanlei.A Case Study of Heavy Snow Forecasting Failure[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2005,33(1):50-52. |
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| Authors: | Sun Xin Qu Xiaobo Shen Yumin Chen Chuanlei |
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| Abstract: | Through comparing forecast with observation, a forecasting failure is analyzed. On the basis of the analysis of the numerical forecasts and the meteorology elements, the predicting thoughts of the forecasters then are discussed. It is pointed out that the main physical mechanism inducing the sudden change of the weather system is the southward moving of the northwestly jet over the central Asia at 300 hPa. The changing high-level trough from backward to forward was unfavorable for the upward air motion. With the real time data, the reasons for forecasting failure are analyzed. The unexpected evolvement of the high level trough and the underestimated changing of the low-level path of the cold air as well as the amount of warm air are the main reasons for the forecast failure. |
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| Keywords: | snow forecasting weather pattern forecasting failure |
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