| 应用互信息法和Cao方法探讨ENSO的可预报性 |
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| 引用本文： | 于江龙,彭跃华.应用互信息法和Cao方法探讨ENSO的可预报性[J].气象科技,2011,39(1):9-12. |
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| 作者姓名： | 于江龙 彭跃华 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 总参气象水文空间天气总站,北京,100081
2. 解放军理工大学气象学院,南京,211101;中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京,100029 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了研究ENSO的可预报性及其在空间和时间上的变化,利用相空间重构的参数确定方法——互信息法和Cao方法来分析研究海表温度异常（SSTA）序列。互信息法的结果表明,时间序列较长,求出的延迟时间较符合理论值。Cao方法的结果表明：SSTA序列的随机性比海杂波强;空间上,赤道东太平洋SSTA序列的确定性较赤道西太平洋的强。
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| 关 键 词： | 时间序列 互信息法 Cao方法 可预报性 |
| 收稿时间： | 2009/10/15 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 4/8/2010 12:00:00 AM |
Predictability Study of ENSO with Mutual Information and Cao Methods |
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| Yu Jianglong and Peng Yuehua.Predictability Study of ENSO with Mutual Information and Cao Methods[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2011,39(1):9-12. |
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| Authors: | Yu Jianglong and Peng Yuehua |
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| Institution: | Yu Jianglong1 Peng Yuehua2,3 (1 Meteorological,Hydrological and Space Weather Terminal Center,General Staff of PLA,Beijing 100081,2 Institute of Meteorology,PLA University of Sciences and Technology,Nanjing 211101,3 Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029) |
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| Abstract: | In order to study the predictability of ENSO and its spatial and temporal changes,the mutual information and Cao methods,which can ascertain the parameters in the phase-space reconstruction,are used to analyze the time series of sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA).The results of the mutual information method show that the calculated delay time of the longer time series is more confident with the theoretical value.The results of the Cao method reveal that the randomicity of the SSTA series is stronger than... |
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| Keywords: | time series mutual information Cao method predictability |
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