| 云南省雷灾特征分析及灾情评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 殷娴,尹丽云,许迎杰,刘平英.云南省雷灾特征分析及灾情评估[J].气象科技,2013,41(1):184-190. |
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| 作者姓名： | 殷娴 尹丽云 许迎杰 刘平英 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 云南省雷电中心,昆明,650034
2. 云南省气象台,昆明,650034 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据云南省2007 2008年的雷电灾害资料以及地闪资料,分析了云南省16个地级市的雷电灾害分布特征,讨论了雷灾分布与地闪分布的关系,并从雷灾记录中提取了6个灾度指标,通过AHP法(层次分析法)建立灾情评估层次模型和灾度评估方程,计算了云南省522次雷灾的灾度值,用SAS中聚类分析过程将灾度值分为4级,并统计分析了各级雷灾在各地区的分布情况,得出云南雷电灾害中小型雷灾分布较广、出现几率较大,而大型和特大型雷灾发生几率较低、主要集中在昆明和德宏地区.该文结论为区域防雷减灾规划提供了科学依据.
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| 关 键 词： | 雷电灾害 灾度 层次分析 聚类分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011/9/13 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2/7/2012 12:00:00 AM |
Characteristics and Valuation of Thunder Disasters in Yunnan |
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| Yin Xian,Yin Liyun,Xu Yingjie and Liu Pingying.Characteristics and Valuation of Thunder Disasters in Yunnan[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2013,41(1):184-190. |
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| Authors: | Yin Xian Yin Liyun Xu Yingjie and Liu Pingying |
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| Institution: | 1(1 Lightning Research Center,Yunnan Meteorological Service,Kunming 650034; 2 Yunnan Meteorological Observatory,Kunming 650034) |
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| Abstract: | According to the lightning data of 2007 to 2008 and lightning disaster data in Yunnan Province, the distribution of lightning disasters in 16 prefecture level cities of Yunnan Province is analyzed, and the relationship between the distributions of lightning disasters and ground flashes is discussed. At the same time, six disaster degree indicators derived from lightning records and the hierarchical disaster assessment and disaster degree evaluation model equation are established. The disaster degree values of 522 lightning disasters are calculated, which can be divided into four degrees according to the cluster analysis in SAS. The distributions of lightning disaster levels for all regions are counted and analyzed. The results indicate that small and medium sized lightning disasters in Yunnan Province have a wide distribution and a large probability, and the occurrence probability of large and extra large lightning disasters is low, which concentrated mainly around Kunming and Dehong. |
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| Keywords: | lightning disaster disaster degree analytic hierarchy process cluster analysis |
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