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重庆市空气污染扩散气象条件指标研究
引用本文:胡春梅,刘德,陈道劲.重庆市空气污染扩散气象条件指标研究[J].气象科技,2009,37(6):665-669.
作者姓名:胡春梅  刘德  陈道劲
作者单位:重庆市气象台,重庆,401147
基金项目:"重庆主城区空气质量潜势综合指标方法研究"项目资助 
摘    要:根据地面常规要素、L波段雷达探测资料风速和温度与污染指数(API:Air Pollution Index)的相关性,建立空气污染扩散条件的综合气象指数(A),按指数大小分类确定潜势预报指标,并应用历史同期气候概率作空气污染潜势预报。通过相关分析发现:与API关系密切的不是20:00的气象要素而是08:00的气象要素;地面要素中,对污染物浓度影响最大的是08:00的24 h变压,而温度的高低对API影响因季节而不同;L波段雷达资料中,150 m风速3、00 m和地面温差与API相关性较好。由相关性好的上述3个要素构造的综合气象指数及确定的扩散条件预报指标是合理的,在实际业务预报中,预报效果较好。

关 键 词:空气污染  K均值  气候概率  潜势预报
收稿时间:2008/3/20 0:00:00
修稿时间:5/6/2009 12:00:00 AM

Index of Meteorological Conditions for Pollutant Diffusion in Chongqing
Hu Chunmei,Liu De and Chen Daojin.Index of Meteorological Conditions for Pollutant Diffusion in Chongqing[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2009,37(6):665-669.
Authors:Hu Chunmei  Liu De and Chen Daojin
Institution:Chongqing Municipal Meteorological Office, Chongqing 401147;Chongqing Municipal Meteorological Office, Chongqing 401147;Chongqing Municipal Meteorological Office, Chongqing 401147
Abstract:According to the relationship between conventional observational data, L-band radar data, and Air Pollution Index (API), an index of meteorological conditions for pollutant diffusion (Index A) for Chongqing is established, which consists of three meteorological elements and can be used to determine the pollution potential through grading by diagnosing the climatic probability in the corresponding periods. The correlation analysis indicates that there is close relationship between API and meteorological data at 08 : 00, not at 20 : 00 ; among the surface meteorological factors, the correlation coefficient between API and the 24 hour pressure variation at 08:00 is the largest, and the effect of temperature on API is different in various seasons; the wind velocity at 150 meters and the temperature difference between the ground and 300 meter height exhibit good relationship with API in the L-band radar data. Index A is therefore composed of the 24 hour pressure variation at 08:00, the wind velocity at 150 meters, and the temperature difference between the ground and 300-meter height. The application proved that Index A is reasonable and performs well in the operational service.
Keywords:air pollution  K mean  climatic probability  pollution potential prediction
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