| 福州市夏季电力气象等级预测模型初探 |
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| 引用本文： | 林小红,夏丽花,黄美金,吴昌叨.福州市夏季电力气象等级预测模型初探[J].气象科技,2006,34(6):774-777. |
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| 作者姓名： | 林小红 夏丽花 黄美金 吴昌叨 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 北京大学物理学院大气科学系,北京,100871;福建省气象台,福州,350001
2. 福建省气象台,福州,350001 |
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| 基金项目： | 上海区域气象中心“高温电力气象需求指数预报”课题资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 对福州市1999~2002年5~9月日电力负荷与日平均气温、日最高气温、日最低气温、日平均相对湿度和天气状况进行分析,发现气象要素的变化会直接影响到电力负荷的调整。从逐日电力负荷资料中提取气象要素引起电力负荷变化的部分即气象负荷,通过计算气象电力负荷与气象要素之间一系列相关指标,并利用回归分析方法建立福州市夏季气象电力负荷预测模型,利用气象要素预报,可实现对气象电力负荷的预测。预测结果通过检验、分析和判定,最后确定了气象电力负荷等级划分的标准。对2003~2005年福州市夏季逐日气象电力负荷等级进行回代检验,结果表明该预测模型有较好的预报能力。
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| 关 键 词： | 电力负荷 气象负荷 气象要素 等级预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-10-18 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006 |
Prediction Model of Meteorological Grades for Electricity Production in Summer in Fuzhou |
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| Lin Xiaohong,Xia Lihu,Huang Meijin,Wu Changdao.Prediction Model of Meteorological Grades for Electricity Production in Summer in Fuzhou[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2006,34(6):774-777. |
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| Authors: | Lin Xiaohong Xia Lihu Huang Meijin Wu Changdao |
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| Institution: | 1 Department of Atmospheric Science, Peking University, Beijing 100871; 2 Fujian Provincial Meteorological Office, Fuzhou 350001 |
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| Abstract: | An analysis is made of the meteorological elements from May to September,1999 to 2002 in Fuzhou,such as maximum,minimum and average temperature, as well as average relative humidity,etc.It is found that the meteorological elements affect directly electricity load.The meteorological electricity load,the part of electricity load variation caused by meteorological element variation,is derived from the day-to-day electricity load data.A series of correlative indexes between electricity load and meteorological elements are computed and a meteorological electricity prediction model is established by using the regression method,which could predict meteorological electricity loads.The predicted results have passed the statistical test,and meteorological electricity load standards are established.The back-substitution check on the day-to-day meteorological electricity load grades in summer from 2003 to 2005 in Fuzhou indicates that the model performs well. |
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| Keywords: | electricity load meteorological electricity load meteorological element graded prediction |
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