| 500 hPa位势高度场极端天气事件的NCEP集合概率预报效果分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 段明铿,王盘兴,吴洪宝.500 hPa位势高度场极端天气事件的NCEP集合概率预报效果分析[J].南京气象学院学报,2011,34(6):717-724. |
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| 作者姓名： | 段明铿 王盘兴 吴洪宝 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,江苏南京,210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY(QX)200906007) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于百分位方法,首先通过构建气候等概率区间得到了位势高度场极端天气事件区分方法,并给出了相应的预报结果检验评价方案;以此为基础,对2003年夏季亚欧区域的500hPa位势高度场极端天气事件的NCEP集合概率预报效果进行了深入分析,得到如下结论：1）分析时段和区域内的极端事件的发生频率比气候平均状况略偏高。NCEP集合预报系统对异常偏低的极端事件的预报易偏高,但相对比较可靠;对相对异常偏高极端事件的预报频率随着预报时效的增大而减小,时效小于3d时预报频率偏高,时效大于5d时显著偏低,预报可靠性相对差一些。2）EV（economic value,经济价值）分析表明,NCEP集合预报系统对偏高（低）极端事件的概率预报效果明显高于正常天气事件。3）预报命中率分析表明,在高概率阈值下,预报命中率较低,这与预报系统在部分个例中的不发散有关。随着概率阈值的降低,预报命中率稳步提高,说明集合成员的发散使之可以覆盖实况可能出现的区间,从而得到更好的预报效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 集合预报 500hPa位势高度场 极端天气事件 概率预报 |
The verification of NCEP ensemble probabilistic forecasts on the extreme weather events of 500 hPa geopotential heights |
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| DUAN Ming-keng,WANG Pan-xing,WU Hong-bao.The verification of NCEP ensemble probabilistic forecasts on the extreme weather events of 500 hPa geopotential heights[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,2011,34(6):717-724. |
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| Authors: | DUAN Ming-keng WANG Pan-xing WU Hong-bao |
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| Institution: | DUAN Ming-keng,WANG Pan-xing,WU Hong-bao (Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,NUIST,Nanjing 210044,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the percentile method,a distinction method for the extreme weather events is proposed by the construction of the climatologically equally likely intervals firstly.Then,the corresponding forecasting evaluation on extreme weather events is performed for 500 hPa geopotential height over Eurasian area in summer 2003.The results are as follows:1)In the analyzed period and region,the frequency of the extreme events is slightly higher than the climatological average situation.In NCEP-EPS,the forecast freq... |
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| Keywords: | ensemble forecasting 500 hPa geopotential height field extreme weather event probabilistic forecasting |
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