| 多模式短期集合降水概率预报试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈超辉,王铁,谭言科,李崇银,许园春.多模式短期集合降水概率预报试验[J].南京气象学院学报,2009,32(2):206-214. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈超辉 王铁 谭言科 李崇银 许园春 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 解放军理工大学气象学院,江苏,南京,211101
2. 解放军理工大学气象学院,江苏,南京,211101;中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京,100029 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用AREM、MM5和WRF3个中尺度数值模式,通过积云参数化和边界层方案组合构成15个集合成员,对中国2003年7月汛期降水分别采用平均法、相关法、Rank法开展多模式短期集合降水概率预报试验。结果表明：用上述3种方法制作的多模式短期集合概率预报都能对降水落区及中心做出较准确的预报,但平均法和相关法易使降水落区虚假放大,Rank法则能较好地刻画降水落区边界及强度,其概率预报效果优于平均法和相关法结果。采用BS（Brier score）、RPS（ranked probability score）评分和ROC（relative operating characteristic）曲线对3种方法的降水概率预报效果评价时发现,对某一临界值等级的概率预报,3种方法结果差异较小;但对某一天降水概率预报结果的综合评价表明,Rank法显著优于前两种方法;降水强度大、范围广的降水的RPS评分和各级的BS评分较高,表明多模式降水概率预报也具艰巨性。
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| 关 键 词： | 集合预报 多模式集合 江淮汛期 汛期降水 概率预报 |
Experiments of Multi-model Short-range Ensemble Precipitation Probability Forecasts |
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| CHEN Chao-hui,WANG Tie,TAN Yan-ke,LI Chong-yin,XU Yuan-chun.Experiments of Multi-model Short-range Ensemble Precipitation Probability Forecasts[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,2009,32(2):206-214. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Chao-hui WANG Tie TAN Yan-ke LI Chong-yin XU Yuan-chun |
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| Institution: | 1.Institute of Meteorology;PLA University of Science and Technology;Nanjing 211101;China;2.Institute of Atmospheric Physics;Chinese Academy of Sciences;Beijing 100029;China |
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| Abstract: | Experiments of 15 ensemble members are performed by using AREM,MM5 and WRF models with different model physical process parameterization schemes and identical initial values for rainy season in July 2003,and multi-model short-range ensemble precipitation probability forecasts are made by means of "Average","Correlation" and "Rank".Results indicate that the ensemble precipitation probability forecasts made by the three methods above-mentioned all can give accurate estimation of center and region of the preci... |
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| Keywords: | ensemble forecast multi-model ensemble Jiang Huai rainy season rainy season precipitation probability forecast |
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