| 预报科学 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱跃建.预报科学[J].南京气象学院学报,2010,33(3):266-270. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱跃建 |
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| 作者单位： | 美国国家环境预报中心,国家海洋和大气管理局,美国,马里兰,20746 |
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| 基金项目： | 致谢：谨以此文纪念我十分敬重的朱乾根教授!感谢陈雯同学将此文翻译成中文! |
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| 摘 要： | 世界各国和各地区的环境预报中心的主要任务是向本国、本地区和全球公众发布科学的环境预报,包括天气、水、气候和空间天气的预报。气象学家与其他科学家合作,一起制作可靠、及时、准确的分析结果、指导意见、预报及预警,以确保人们的生命和财产安全,促进全球经济的发展,以满足人们日益增长的对环境信息的需求。为了更准确地制作预报、更好地服务大众以及最大限度地减少生命和财产损失,这里提出了＂预报科学＂思想。预报科学包括现代观测系统的资料收集、观测与预报信息的实时交流、各种科学技术的发展、无缝隙预报以及公共服务等。预报科学可以概括为三个相互独立的部分,即科学性、工程性和艺术性,且三者存在相互作用。总之,天气预报是大气与环境服务的重要组成部分;预报科学的科学性、工程性和艺术性均服务于天气预报、服务于人民。
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| 关 键 词： | 天气预报 科学性 工程性 艺术性 |
The Prediction Science |
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| ZHU Yuejian.The Prediction Science[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,2010,33(3):266-270. |
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| Authors: | ZHU Yuejian |
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| Institution: | ZHU Yuejian (Environmental Modeling Center,NCEP/NOAA/USA,Camp Springs,MD 20746,USA) |
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| Abstract: | Mainly,the national environmental prediction centers around the world are delivering the science-based environmental predictions,which include weather,water,climate and space weather to its nation and the global community.The meteorologists collaborate with all other scientists to produce reliable,timely,and accurate analyses,guidance,forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the global economy,supporting of the growing need for environmental information.In order to make more accurate prediction,better service the people,and maximum reduce the loss of life and property,the PREDICTION SCIENCE have been addressed here.The prediction science includes the data collection from modern observations,real time exchange of the observed and forecasted information,development of various science and technology,seamless forecasts and public services,which could be described as：the SCIENCES,the ENGINEERING and the ARTS independently,and the interaction around them.In general,the weather forecast apparently is a key part of atmospheric and environmental service.The sciences,the engineering and the arts are all servicing our weather forecast,servicing our peoples. |
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| Keywords: | weather forecast science engineering art |
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