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| 雷暴云的集合预报技术及其应用 | |
| 引用本文： | 王佳,智协飞,陈钰文,商兆堂,白卡娃.雷暴云的集合预报技术及其应用[J].南京气象学院学报,2012,35(4):458-465. |
| 作者姓名： | 王佳 智协飞 陈钰文 商兆堂 白卡娃 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210044 江苏省人工影响天气办公室,江苏南京210008 2. 南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,江苏南京,210044 3. 江苏省人工影响天气办公室,江苏南京,210008 4. 江苏省气象局,江苏南京,210008 |
| 基金项目： | 江苏省气象局开放基金，国家重大科学研究973计划项目，江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目 |
| 摘 要： | 以中尺度非静力WRF模式的格点预报结果作为云模式的初值集合，经云模式的多初值雷暴预报及预报结果的集合分析，建立了雷暴云的集合预报方法。将该方法应用于南京周边地区未来一天雷暴天气的特征预报，并利用南京夏季9个雷暴天气的多普勒雷达资料（SCIT，storm cell identification and tracking）进行预报效果的检验。结果表明，雷暴云的集合预报对研究区域内未来一天雷暴强度、分布预报效果较好，尤其对强雷暴的分布有较强的预警预测能力。此外，雷暴持续时间概率密度分布的集合预报产品，在雷暴影响范围概率预报上的应用，提高了雷达对雷暴的预警监测能力。 |
| 关 键 词： | 雷暴 积云尺度 集合预报 概率密度分布 效果检验 |
The ensemble forecasting technique of the thunderstorm and its application |
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| WANG Jiat,ZHI Xie-fei,CHEN Yu-wen,SHANG Zhao-tang,BAI Ka-wa.The ensemble forecasting technique of the thunderstorm and its application[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,2012,35(4):458-465. | |
| Authors: | WANG Jiat ZHI Xie-fei CHEN Yu-wen SHANG Zhao-tang BAI Ka-wa |
| Institution: | 1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, NUIST, Nanjing 210044, China 2. Jiangsu Provincial Weather Modification Office,Nanjing 210008 ,China; 3. Jiangsu Provincial Meteorological Bureau ,Nanjing 210008 ,China) |
| Abstract: | A thunderstorm ensemble forecasting approach is perti~rmed by the ensemble analysis of the cloud model＇ s forecast results according to the initial condition aggregation provided by the grid fore-cast results of the mesoscale non-hydrostatic WRF model. The approach is applied to forecast the char-acteristics of thunderstorm around Nanjing one day in advance and is verified by the Doppler radar data of the thunderstorms in summer in Nanjing. Results show that the intensity and distribution of thunder-storms over the research area is reasonably predicted one day in advance. It is particularly good to fore-cast the distribution of the strong thunderstorms by using the ensemble forecasting technique. Moreover, the application of the PDF（probability density function）of thunderstorms＇ duration into the probability forecasting of the influenced area of thunderstorms improves the radar＇ s warning and monitoring capac-ity of local thunderstorms. |
| Keywords: | thunderstorm convective scale ensemble forecasting probability density function verifica-tion |
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