| 热带印度洋-太平洋地区海表温度异常的线性转置预报模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 王秀荣,吴洪宝.热带印度洋-太平洋地区海表温度异常的线性转置预报模型[J].南京气象学院学报,2000,23(2):218-225. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王秀荣 吴洪宝 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京气象学院大气科学系,南京,210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家“九五”重中之重项目!96-90 8资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用ＣＯＡＤＳ的月平均海平面温度跨平（ＳＳＴＡ）资料，建立了预报热带印度洋－太平洋ＳＳＴＡ的线性转置模型（ＬＩＭ）。经检验，对于非独立和独立样本，预报的均方根误差分别在１２个月和１０个月预报时效内小于ＳＳＴＡ的均方差，相对误差在５个月预报时效内都小于５０％。在Ｅ１Ｎｉｎｏ和Ｌａ Ｎｉｎａ时段效果优于其他时段，其中Ｌａ Ｎｉｎａ时段又更好些。对同一地区的ＳＳＴＡ，ＬＩＭ预报优于自回归模型预报、奇异谱
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| 关 键 词： | 线性转置模型 海温距平 预报 热带印度洋 太平洋 |
| 修稿时间： | 1999-08-30 |
LINEAR INVERSE MODELING FOR PREDICTING THE SSTA OF TROPICAL INDIAN-PACIFIC |
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| Wang Xiurong,Wu Hongbao.LINEAR INVERSE MODELING FOR PREDICTING THE SSTA OF TROPICAL INDIAN-PACIFIC[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,2000,23(2):218-225. |
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| Authors: | Wang Xiurong Wu Hongbao |
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| Abstract: | Based on monthly COADS SSTA dataset,linear inverse modeling (LIM) is developed to predict SSTA over tropical Indian Pacific Oceans.Prediction results of independent and dependent samples show that the RMS errors of SSTA predicted in 10~12 months ahead are smaller than SSTA mean square deviation and that the relative errors in 5 months ahead are less than 50 %.The prediction accuracy is btter during El Nino and La Nina periods than during other periods,especially during La Nina periods.The prediction accuracy of LIM is better than that of auto regression model,SSA MEM model,climate value prediction and persistence prediction. |
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| Keywords: | linear inverse modeling SSTA prediction |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
