| 降水预报-观测概率匹配动态订正法在江西降水集中期的应用与检验 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 陈翔翔,郭达烽.降水预报-观测概率匹配动态订正法在江西降水集中期的应用与检验[J].南京气象学院学报,2021,13(2):233-241. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 陈翔翔 郭达烽 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 江西省气象台, 南昌, 330000,江西省气象台, 南昌, 330000 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 2017年度江西省气象局面上项目 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 为提高数值预报降水预报的准确率，本文利用欧洲中期天气预报中心的高分辨率数值预报（ECMWF）降水预报资料和江西省国家级气象观测站实况降水资料进行概率匹配，选取Gamma累积概率分布函数用于拟合预报与观测的降水累积概率，通过在2017年江西省一次降水集中期的应用试验，得到以下结论：基于ECMWF的降水预报-观测概率匹配动态订正法由于把最新的预报与实况结果带入概率匹配中，并根据近期模式预报调整及误差不断自动更新各量级降水修正值，可实时动态订正模式降水预报；检验发现ECMWF模式降水产品对于24 h内12 h间隔的10 mm及以下量级的预报普遍偏大，25 mm及以上量级的预报普遍偏小，在江西区域九江沿江地区和景德镇的各量级降水预报较为接近实况、预报效果较好.本降水预报订正法能提高小雨和暴雨的TS评分、降低暴雨的漏报率且提升其命中率，但对大雨及部分中雨的订正效果不佳，在实践中应权衡利弊使用.
|
| 关 键 词： | 降水预报 概率匹配 动态订正 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/11/20 0:00:00 |
Application and analysis of forecast-observed pricipitation probability matching dynamic correrction method in precipitation concentration period of Jiangxi province |
| |
| CHEN Xiangxiang and GUO Dafeng.Application and analysis of forecast-observed pricipitation probability matching dynamic correrction method in precipitation concentration period of Jiangxi province[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,2021,13(2):233-241. |
| |
| Authors: | CHEN Xiangxiang and GUO Dafeng |
| |
| Institution: | Jiangxi Meteorological Observatory, Nanchang 330000 and Jiangxi Meteorological Observatory, Nanchang 330000 |
| |
| Abstract: | In order to improve the accuracy of numerical precipitation forecasting,forecast data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)and Jiangxi meteorological observation stations were used in this study.A gamma function was used to simulate the precipitation cumulative probability of prediction and observation.The method was tested for a precipitation concentration period in Jiangxi province in 2017.The results show that the ECMWF forecast-observed precipitation probability matching dynamic correction method provides the latest real-time forecasts and observations for probability matching,and updates the precipitation correction values of all grades automatically according to the prediction adjustment and error of the recent model.It is found that the ECMWF''s daily 12 h interval precipitation forecast is generally larger for precipitation 10 mm and below,and smaller for precipitation 25 mm and above.The precipitation forecast in the Jiujiang area along the Yangtze River and Jingdezhen is close to actual conditions.This precipitation forecasting method can improve the threat score of light and heavy rain,reduces the PO of heavy rain,and increases its POD.However,the correction effect of heavy rain and some moderate rain is not good;hence,the advantages and disadvantages should be considered in practice. |
| |
| Keywords: | precipitation forecast probability matching dynamic correction |
|
| 点击此处可从《南京气象学院学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《南京气象学院学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
