| 2015—2050年中国分省城乡人口变化及其影响因素研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王艳君,景丞,姜彤,翟建青,冯志强,杨陈心怡,张冉,苏布达.2015—2050年中国分省城乡人口变化及其影响因素研究[J].南京气象学院学报,2020,12(4):395-405. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王艳君 景丞 姜彤 翟建青 冯志强 杨陈心怡 张冉 苏布达 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学 灾害风险管理研究院/地理科学学院, 南京, 210044,中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐, 830011,南京信息工程大学 灾害风险管理研究院/地理科学学院, 南京, 210044,中国气象局国家气候中心, 北京, 100081,爱丁堡大学 地球科学学院, 爱丁堡, EH8 9XP,南京信息工程大学 灾害风险管理研究院/地理科学学院, 南京, 210044,南京信息工程大学 灾害风险管理研究院/地理科学学院, 南京, 210044,中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐, 830011;中国气象局国家气候中心, 北京, 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目（2017YFA0603701）；中国气象局气候变化专项（CCSF201924） |
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| 摘 要： | 社会经济发展道路的选择影响城乡发展模式，带来城市和农村人口新的分布格局.本文基于IPCC共享社会经济路径（SSPs）框架，采用第六次中国人口普查数据，综合考虑中国人口政策和迁移规律，对人口-发展-环境分析模型（PDE）中的生育率、死亡率和迁移率参数进行本地化处理，开展5种SSPs路径下的中国及分省（区、市）城乡人口预估研究，并分析其变化的主要影响因素.结果表明：1）5种SSPs路径下中国城市人口均有所增加，2015-2050年增长3.4（2.2~3.7）亿人；农村人口持续降低，减少约3.0（1.1~4.0）亿人；到2050年中国城市化率将达到79%（67%~86%）.2）未来中国大部分省份城市人口都将较2015年有所增加，西部省份的增长速度高于东部省份；所有省份农村人口都将明显减少，东部地区农村人口减少幅度高于西部地区.相比2015年，2050年西藏、新疆等地城市人口最多可增加两倍以上；大部分省（区、市）农村人口可减少60%以上.3）未来大部分路径下自然变动对城市和农村人口均由正的影响逐渐变为负影响；机械变动对城市人口影响为正，对农村人口影响为负，影响程度逐渐减小.人口自然变动在东西部省份的差异是导致东西部城乡人口不同变化的主要因素.
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| 关 键 词： | 城乡人口 预估 共享社会经济路径(SSPs) 中国 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020/5/20 0:00:00 |
Projection of provincial urban and rural population and its influencing factors in mainland China (2015-2050) |
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| WANG Yanjun,JING Cheng,JIANG Tong,ZHAI Jianqing,FENG Zhiqiang,YANGCHEN Xinyi,ZHANG Ran and SU Buda.Projection of provincial urban and rural population and its influencing factors in mainland China (2015-2050)[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,2020,12(4):395-405. |
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| Authors: | WANG Yanjun JING Cheng JIANG Tong ZHAI Jianqing FENG Zhiqiang YANGCHEN Xinyi ZHANG Ran and SU Buda |
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| Institution: | Institute for Disaster Risk Management/School of Geographic Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044,State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011,Institute for Disaster Risk Management/School of Geographic Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044,National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081,School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, UK,Institute for Disaster Risk Management/School of Geographic Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044,Institute for Disaster Risk Management/School of Geographic Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044 and State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011;National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | The choice of socioeconomic development pathways will affect the urban and rural development trend and bring a new urban and rural population distribution pattern in the future.Under the framework of IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs),this study applies the Sixth National Population Census data with consideration of demographic policy and current migration situation of mainland China to localize the fertility,mortality and migration parameters in the PDE model.Subsequently,the national and provincial scale urban and rural population in mainland China were projected under five SSPs.Research results show that:(1) urban population in mainland China will increase under the all five SSPs,with an increase of 220 million (SSP3) to 370 million (SSP5) people in 2015-2050.The rural population will decline continuously,with a decrease of about 110 million (SSP3) to 400 million (SSP5).The urbanization rate in mainland China will reach 67%-86% by 2050.(2) In the future,the urban population in the majority of provinces will increase,with the higher growth rate in the provinces of western China than eastern provinces.On the contrary,rural population of all provinces of mainland China will reduce significantly,with the decrease being more obvious in eastern provinces than that in western provinces.With relative to 2015,urban population in provinces including Tibet,Xinjiang,etc.can increase by more than two times in 2050.Meanwhile,rural population of most provinces will reduce by more than 60%.(3) In the future,the effect of natural growth on both urban and rural population will gradually change from positive to negative.The mechanical growth will have a positive effect on increase of urban population but negatively effects the size of rural population with a gradual decreasing impact.The difference of natural variability between eastern and western provinces is the main factor leading to the different changes of urban and rural population. |
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| Keywords: | urban and rural population projection Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) China |
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