| 三维插值方法在2 m温度评估中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵滨,李子良,张博.三维插值方法在2 m温度评估中的应用[J].南京气象学院学报,2016,8(4):343-355. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵滨 李子良 张博 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象局 国家气象中心, 北京, 100081;黑龙江省黑河市气象局, 黑河, 164300;中国气象局 国家气象中心, 北京, 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金青年基金（41305091）；中国气象局成都高原气象研究所科研基金（LPM201401） |
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| 摘 要： | 模式地形与实况站点地形高度间固有差异严重影响了2 m温度检验评估精度，传统二维插值方法仅满足预报要素与实况观测间经纬度二维空间上的一致性，而忽略了垂直方向的一致性问题，使得检验评估中预报与观测不在同一三维空间上进行检验，从而引起严重的评估误导.利用模式三维预报变量，结合近地面要素预报产品，建立新的近地面要素三维插值方法，以确保预报与观测在三维空间上保持一致性.利用2013年7月整月24 h预报产品与观测的对比分析发现，新插值方法有效地改进了由于地形误差引起的评估误导问题，在不同地形高度条件下均保持了较为一致的误差分布趋势，显示其评估结论不受地形因素影响，具有更好的实际应用价值.进一步关注新插值方法在复杂地形区不同模拟分辨率条件下的评估改进效果，采用GRAPES区域预报模式（GRAPES-MESO4.0）针对2012年7月个例，对青藏高原复杂地形区进行了不同分辨率（45、15、5和2 km）条件下的60 h模拟敏感分析，结果表明新插值方法在高分辨率条件下（2 km）依然显示出明显的改进优势.
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| 关 键 词： | 2 m温度 三维插值方法 地形 评估误导 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015/5/8 0:00:00 |
Application of a 3D interpolation scheme for 2 meter temperature verification |
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| ZHAO Bin,LI Ziliang and ZHANG Bo.Application of a 3D interpolation scheme for 2 meter temperature verification[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,2016,8(4):343-355. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Bin LI Ziliang and ZHANG Bo |
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| Institution: | National Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081;Heihe Weather Office of Heilongjiang Province, Heihe 164300;National Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | The inherent difference between the modeled terrain and observed topography has seriously affected the 2 m temperature verification accuracy.The traditional 2D interpolation scheme can only ensure the consistency in two-dimensional space at latitude and longitude,while its neglect of the consistency at vertical direction produces error between forecast result and observation data.Using three-dimensional forecast variables,combined with near-surface elements of forecast products,an advanced 3D interpolation scheme is developed to ensure the consistency with the observed 3D space forecasting.The 24 h forecast products and observation data in July 2013 are used to compare and the results show that the proposed 3D interpolation scheme effectively solve the evaluation difference caused by the height bias between the modeled terrain and observed topography,which have maintained relatively consistent error distribution under different terrain height.And the evaluation results are not affected by terrain,which means it has good application value.To verify the proposed 3-D interpolation scheme for complex terrain with different resolutions,we carry out 60 h simulation sensitive tests for 2 m temperature estimation of Tibetan in July,2012 under resolution of 45 km,15 km,5 km,and 2 km,which show that the proposed method can improve estimation accuracy even under high resolution of 2 m. |
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| Keywords: | 2 m temperature three-dimensional interpolation scheme topography evaluation difference |
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