| 连环犯罪的时空预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 缪丽娟,刘强,王一舟,陈昌春.连环犯罪的时空预测方法[J].南京气象学院学报,2010(6):514-518. |
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| 作者姓名： | 缪丽娟 刘强 王一舟 陈昌春 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学遥感学院, 南京 210044;南京信息工程大学遥感学院, 南京 210044;南京信息工程大学遥感学院, 南京 210044;南京信息工程大学遥感学院, 南京 210044 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于英国的连环犯罪调查数据,使用ArcGIS9.2软件对犯罪地点进行缓冲区分析,将全范围内的可能犯罪地点进行重分类,然后采用Rossmo公式建模预测分析犯罪地点,得到罪犯居住地的可能性分布,最后通过时间序列分析方法对下次行凶的可能时间和地点进行了预测.
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| 关 键 词： | 缓冲区分析 反距离加权 时间序列分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010/4/26 0:00:00 |
Space-time prediction of serial crimes |
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| MIAO Lijun,LIU Qiang,WANG Yizhou and CHEN Changchun.Space-time prediction of serial crimes[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,2010(6):514-518. |
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| Authors: | MIAO Lijun LIU Qiang WANG Yizhou and CHEN Changchun |
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| Institution: | School of Remote Sensing, Nanjing University of Infornation Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044;School of Remote Sensing, Nanjing University of Infornation Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044;School of Remote Sensing, Nanjing University of Infornation Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044;School of Remote Sensing, Nanjing University of Infornation Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044 |
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| Abstract: | With the increasing complexity of modern society,the occurrence of serial crimes climbed rapidly,which increased the detection difficulties for the police.Based on the survey data of serial crimes happened in Yorkshire UK,this paper analysed the buffer areas of crime places using software of ArcGIS 9.2,and established a model with Rossmo fomula to reclassify crime places.This research also gives the probable distribution of criminals'' residence,and predicts the probable time and place of next crime by using the time sequence. |
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| Keywords: | bufferareaanalysis inversedistanceweight timeseriesanalysis |
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