Projection and possible causes of summer precipitation in eastern China using self-organizing map |
| |
| Authors: | Mei Li Zhihong Jiang Pu Zhou Herv&#; Le Treut Laurent Li |
| |
| Institution: | 1.Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China;2.Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China;3.Fengxian Meteorological Service, Fengxian District, Shanghai, China;4.Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, IPSL, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France |
| |
| Abstract: | Self-organizing map (SOM) is used to simulate summer daily precipitation over the Yangtze–Huaihe river basin in Eastern China, including future projections. SOM shows good behaviors in terms of probability distribution of daily rainfall and spatial distribution of rainfall indices, as well as consistency of multi-model simulations. Under RCP4.5 Scenario, daily rainfall at most sites (63%) is projected to shift towards larger values. For the early 21st century (2016–2035), precipitation in the central basin increases, yet decreases occur over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River as well as a part of its southeast area. For the late 21st century (2081–2100), the mean precipitation and extreme indices experience an overall increase except for a few southeast stations. The total precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and in its south area is projected to increase from 7% at 1.5 °C global warming to 11% at 2 °C, while the intensity enhancement is more significant in southern and western sites of the domain. A clustering allows to regroup all SOM nodes into four distinct regimes. Such regional synoptic regimes show remarkable stability for future climate. The overall intensification of precipitation in future climate is linked to the occurrence-frequency rise of a wet regime which brings longitudinally closer the South Asia High (eastward extended) and the Western Pacific Subtropical High (westward extended), as well as the reduction of a dry pattern which makes the two atmospheric centers of action move away from each other. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录！ |
|
