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Assessment of the APCC coupled MME suite in predicting the distinctive climate impacts of two flavors of ENSO during boreal winter |
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| Authors: | Hye-In Jeong Doo Young Lee Karumuri Ashok Joong-Bae Ahn June-Yi Lee Jing-Jia Luo Jae-Kyung E Schemm Harry H Hendon Karl Braganza Yoo-Geun Ham |
| Institution: | 1. APEC Climate Center (APCC), Pusan, Republic of Korea 2. Pusan National University, Pusan, Republic of Korea 3. Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India 4. International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, USA 5. Research Institute for Global Change/JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan 6. NCEP/NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Camp Spring, MD, USA 7. Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia 8. Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA/GSFC), Greenbelt, MD, USA 9. Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research Studies and Investigations, Universities Space Research Association, Greenbelt, MD, USA |
| Abstract: | Forecast skill of the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast system in predicting two main types of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely canonical (or cold tongue) and Modoki ENSO, and their regional climate impacts is assessed for boreal winter. The APCC MME is constructed by simple composite of ensemble forecasts from five independent coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Based on a hindcast set targeting boreal winter prediction for the period 1982–2004, we show that the MME can predict and discern the important differences in the patterns of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly between the canonical and Modoki ENSO one and four month ahead. Importantly, the four month lead MME beats the persistent forecast. The MME reasonably predicts the distinct impacts of the canonical ENSO, including the strong winter monsoon rainfall over East Asia, the below normal rainfall and above normal temperature over Australia, the anomalously wet conditions across the south and cold conditions over the whole area of USA, and the anomalously dry conditions over South America. However, there are some limitations in capturing its regional impacts, especially, over Australasia and tropical South America at a lead time of one and four months. Nonetheless, forecast skills for rainfall and temperature over East Asia and North America during ENSO Modoki are comparable to or slightly higher than those during canonical ENSO events. |
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