| 广西电网电力负荷变化特征与气温的关系及其预测 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 钟利华,周绍毅,李勇,张宇平.广西电网电力负荷变化特征与气温的关系及其预测[J].广西气象,2007,28(1):56-59,63. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 钟利华 周绍毅 李勇 张宇平 |
| |
| 作者单位： | [1]广西区气象科技服务中心,广西南宁530022 [2]广西区气候中心,广西南宁530022 [3]广西区电力调度通信中心,广西南宁530023 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 通过分析1997-2003年5～10月广西电网电力负荷月、周和节假日的变化特征，及与气温的相关关系，发现：电力负荷基本呈逐年增加的趋势，工作日和非工作日有着不同的变化特征，电力负荷与气温有明显的相关关系。采用逐步回归方法，建立了广西电网逐日电力负荷预测模型，对2002-2003年模型的拟合结果及2004-2005年模型的预测结果分析表明：模型对广西逐日电力负荷具有较好的拟合和预测效果，对逐日电力负荷的季节变化具有较好的拟合效果，尤其是夏季预测与实况趋势基本吻合。
|
| 关 键 词： | 电力负荷 变化 气温 关系 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1673-8411（2007）01-0056-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-06-30 |
Guangxi Electrical Network Power Load Change Characteristic and Temperature Relations and Its Forecast |
| |
| ZHONG Li-hua, ZHOU Shao-yi, LI Yong, ZHANG Yu-ping.Guangxi Electrical Network Power Load Change Characteristic and Temperature Relations and Its Forecast[J].Journal of Guangxi Meteorology,2007,28(1):56-59,63. |
| |
| Authors: | ZHONG Li-hua ZHOU Shao-yi LI Yong ZHANG Yu-ping |
| |
| Abstract: | By analyzing the months from 5 to 10 in 1997;2003, Guangxi electrical network electric power negative month, the week and the holiday change characteristic, and with the temperature correlation dependence, it is found that the power load basically assumes the tendency, which increases year by year, the working day and the non-working day has the different change characteristic, the power load and the temperature has the obvious correlation dependence. Uses the stepwise regression analysis method, daily power load forecast model for Guangxi electrical network is established. The fitting result from 2002 to 2003 and forecast result from 2004 to 2005 of the model indicate that it has a better fitting and the forecast effect to the daily power load and has the better fitting effect day after day to the power load seasonal variation, particularly in summer the forecast and the live tendency is basically identical. |
| |
| Keywords: | power load variety temperature relationship forecast |
| 本文献已被 维普 等数据库收录！ |
|
