| 均生函数残差预报模型在降水预报中的试验研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 唐毓勇,蒋国兴.均生函数残差预报模型在降水预报中的试验研究[J].广西气象,2006,27(3):5-8. |
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| 作者姓名： | 唐毓勇 蒋国兴 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]百色市气象局,广西百色533000 [2]广西区气象局,广西南宁530022 |
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| 摘 要： | 在均生函预报模型的基础上，利用其残差数据序列对均生函数预报模型进行校正，提出了均生函数残差预报模型。运用两种模型对百色市6、7、8月月降雨量进行了历史样本拟合，并进行独立地样本预报试验。预报结果发现，均生函数残差预报模型对原有模型在预报精度上都有一定的改进，取得了较好的预报效果。同时，利用MannKendall法和Yamamoto法，可以明确突变开始的时间，指出突变区域，使待报时段与建模资料处在同一气候阶段则预报效果更为理想。
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| 关 键 词： | 均生函数残差预报模型 均生函数预报模型 降水预报 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-5191（2006）03-0005-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-07-29 |
The Experimental Study of Precipitation Forecast for the Residual Error Forecast Model of Average-growing Function |
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| TANG Yu-yong, JIANG Guo-xing.The Experimental Study of Precipitation Forecast for the Residual Error Forecast Model of Average-growing Function[J].Journal of Guangxi Meteorology,2006,27(3):5-8. |
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| Authors: | TANG Yu-yong JIANG Guo-xing |
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| Institution: | 1. Baise Meteorological Bureau, Guangxi Baise 533000~ Guangxi Meteorological Bureau, Guangxi Nanning 530022 |
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| Abstract: | This paper presents the residual error forecast model of average-growing function by using its residual error data sequence to adjust the model based on the finished forecast model, and also conducts the sample forecast experiment independently by using two kind of models to make the historical sample fitting on the monthly rainfall amount of June, July and August in Baise. The forecast result finds that the model has obtained a good forecast effect after it makes a certain improvement to the original model, meanwhile, it makes clear about the start time of the sudden change with Mann-Kendall law and Yamamoto law, and points out the sudden change area, and makes the forecast effect more ideal when the forecast time interval and the modeling data are in the identical climate stage. |
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| Keywords: | Residual error forecast model of average-growing function forecast model of averagegrowing function precipitation forecast |
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