| 华北汛期日降水特性的变化分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘海文,丁一汇.华北汛期日降水特性的变化分析[J].大气科学,2010,34(1):12-22. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘海文 丁一汇 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国气象科学研究院, 北京,100081;南京信息工程大学, 南京,210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目2006CB403604;;国家科技支撑计划项目2007BAC03A01 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于中国740站逐日降水资料, 使用线性倾向估计、 Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法, 分析了华北汛期降水量、 5类汛期降水频率及其贡献率的趋势特征和年代际变化, 揭示出一些比较有意义的新事实, 结果如下: 华北汛期降水量、 5类降水频率及其贡献率都有一定的下降趋势, 华北汛期降水量下降趋势最明显。5类降水频率的下降趋势, 表现出明显的渐变特点, 其中, 小雨频率下降趋势最大, 暴雨频率和大暴雨频率的下降趋势并不显著。5类降水贡献率下降趋势中, 华北暴雨贡献率下降趋势最大。50年来, 华北汛期大雨贡献率最大, 接近于总降水的1/3。华北汛期降水量的多寡主要受其汛期大雨的频率和暴雨的贡献率影响。华北汛期降水量和暴雨贡献率都在1978年前后发生了年代际突变, 华北暴雨贡献率的年代际突变是造成华北汛期降水量发生年代际突变的内在因素。
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| 关 键 词： | 降水频率 降水贡献率 长期变化 突变 |
Analysis of Daily Precipitation Characteristics over North China during Rainy Seasons |
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| LIU Haiwen and DING Yihui.Analysis of Daily Precipitation Characteristics over North China during Rainy Seasons[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2010,34(1):12-22. |
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| Authors: | LIU Haiwen and DING Yihui |
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| Institution: | 1.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing,100081;Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing,2100442.National Climate Center, Beijing,100081 |
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| Abstract: | Based on the daily precipitation data from 740 stations, by means of linear trend estimate, Mann-Kendall test method, the long-term trends and interdecadal variation of precipitation, frequency, contribution to the total rainfall over North China during rainy seasons are analyzed. Some new results are discovered as follows: the rainfall over North China during rainy seasons, and five kinds of precipitation frequency and contribution over North China during rainy seasons have a certain decreased trend with d... |
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| Keywords: | precipitation frequency precipitation contribution long term variability abrupt change |
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