| 基于CNOP方法的台风目标观测中三种敏感区
确定方案的比较研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 周菲凡,张贺.基于CNOP方法的台风目标观测中三种敏感区
确定方案的比较研究[J].大气科学,2014,38(2):261-272. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周菲凡 张贺 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国科学院大气物理研究所云降水物理与强风暴实验室, 北京100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金青年基金项目41105038、41005054；中国科学院重点部署项目KZZD-EW-05-01-01 |
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| 摘 要： | 在目标观测中，敏感区的确定是个关键性的问题。本文详细研究了如何用条件非线性最优扰动（CNOP）方法确定敏感区。提出了三种确定敏感区的方案:水平投影方案、单点能量投影方案以及垂直积分能量方案。比较了三种方案确定的敏感区的差异，分析了它们所阐释的物理意义，讨论了它们的优缺点，并通过理想回报试验考查了不同方案确定的敏感区的有效性。对六个台风个例的应用结果显示，单点能量投影方案与垂直积分能量方案下识别的敏感区较为相似，二者与水平投影方案确定的敏感区则有较大的区别。两种能量方案确定的敏感区更多地反映了环境场对台风的影响，而水平投影方案则反映了台风自身对流不对称性结构对台风发展变化的影响。理想回报试验结果表明，由两种能量方案确定的敏感区对预报误差能量的减小程度以及路径预报的改善程度都要大于水平投影方案确定的敏感区的效果，且垂直积分能量方案确定的敏感区的有效性最高。而在强度预报方面，三种方案对预报效果的改善程度相当。因此，总的说在台风目标观测研究中，利用CNOP方法确定敏感区时，垂直积分能量方案是较佳的方案。
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| 关 键 词： | 条件非线性最优扰动(CNOP)台风目标观测 敏感区 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013/2/28 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2013/7/18 0:00:00 |
Study of the Schemes Based on CNOP Method to Identify Sensitive Areas for Typhoon Targeted Observations |
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| ZHOU Feifan and ZHANG He.Study of the Schemes Based on CNOP Method to Identify Sensitive Areas for Typhoon Targeted Observations[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2014,38(2):261-272. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Feifan and ZHANG He |
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| Institution: | 1.Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms (LACS), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 1000292.International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences (ICCES), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044 |
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| Abstract: | Identification of sensitive areas is a key point in targeted observations. This paper studies the manner in which conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) is used to identify sensitive areas in typhoon targeted observation and proposes three schemes including horizontal projection, single energy projection, and vertically integrated energy schemes. The sensitive areas determined by these three schemes have been compared, their physical meanings have been analyzed, and their advantages and disadvantages have been discussed. The efficiencies of the sensitive areas have been examined by ideal forecast experiments. The application of these three schemes to six typhoons showed that the sensitive areas determined by the single energy projection scheme were similar to those determined by the vertically integrated energy scheme and differed significantly from those determined by the horizontal projection scheme. Physical analysis revealed that the sensitive areas determined by the two energy schemes reflect the effects of environment on typhoons, whereas those determined by the horizontal projection scheme reflect the effects of asymmetry structures in typhoons. The ideal forecast experiments showed that the sensitive areas determined by two energy schemes are more efficient than that determined by horizontal projection scheme in reducing the energy of forecast errors in the verification area and improving the typhoon track forecasts, with the vertically integrated energy scheme showing the highest efficiency. While in improving the typhoon intensity forecasts, three schemes are comparable. Generally, the vertically integrated energy scheme is recommended when using the CNOP method to determine sensitive areas in typhoon observations. |
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| Keywords: | Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation (CNOP) Typhoon targeted observation Sensitive area |
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