| 2006～2013年CMIP5模式中国降水预估误差分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 张蓓,戴新刚.2006～2013年CMIP5模式中国降水预估误差分析[J].大气科学,2016,40(5):981-994. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 张蓓 戴新刚 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.兰州大学大气科学学院, 兰州 730000;中国科学院东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室, 北京 100029 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）项目2013CB430201，国家自然科学基金项目41475075、41075058 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 用第五次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）的10个模式模拟结果与英国东安格利亚大学（UEA）气候研究机构（CRU）的最新降水格点分析资料比较，评估了三种典型浓度路径（RCPs）排放情景下模式集合对2006～2013年中国降水预估误差，结果发现模式间年降水预估在西北和东部沿海地区差异较明显，在沿海地区模式降水估计偏少，在西部和北方大部分地区偏多；冬半年大部分地区模式降水明显偏多，部分地区甚至偏多一倍以上；夏半年东部季风区降水估计偏少，但西部仍然偏多。模式降水误差随时间变化，夏半年误差变化明显的区域主要集中在北方和东部地区，冬半年在东北南部、华东及华南等地。此外，提高排放情景对年降水量估计影响明显的地区主要集中在我国西部的部分地区，加剧了西北模式降水估计偏多程度，但对东部地区影响不大。El Ni?o与La Ni?a年的模式降水误差分布相似，仅在沿海部分地区和华北北部差异较明显，逐年误差分布特征也与此相似。各种误差的对比分析表明，模式降水误差可能多来自模式本身存在的问题，如积云对流参数化、固体降水物理过程、地形处理及分辨率等。这些误差特征说明，直接使用CMIP5模式集合情景输出资料估计未来降水的方法存在较大的不确定性，必须对其进行评估，以降低潜在用户或决策者们制定未来规划的风险。
|
| 关 键 词： | 中国降水 CMIP5 RCPs排放情景 集合预估 误差分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 6/9/2015 12:00:00 AM |
Assessment of the Deviation of China Precipitation Projected by CMIP5 Models for 2006-2013 |
| |
| ZHANG Bei and DAI Xin''gang.Assessment of the Deviation of China Precipitation Projected by CMIP5 Models for 2006-2013[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2016,40(5):981-994. |
| |
| Authors: | ZHANG Bei and DAI Xin'gang |
| |
| Institution: | 1.College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000;Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 1000292.Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 |
| |
| Abstract: | This study focuses on investigating the deviation of 2006-2013 mean precipitation projected by the multi-model ensemble over China using the outputs of 10 CMIP5 climate models under various RCP scenarios, in comparison with the latest grid precipitation from the CRU, University of East Anglia. The results show that there are obvious differences in projected precipitation among the 10 models for Northwest China and the eastern coastal zone. The model-ensemble precipitation is overestimated in northern and western parts of China and underestimated in the coastal zone. In the winter-half year, the precipitation is obviously overestimated in most parts of China, even double or more than observed, but underestimated in the coastal zone; while in the summer-half year, it is underestimated in the eastern monsoon zone and overestimated in western China. The deviation changes with time, and its trend is apparent in northern and eastern parts in the summer-half year, and in Northeast, eastern and southern China in the winter-half year. In addition, the overestimation of precipitation is intensified in the northwest of China if using RCP8.5 scenario, but relatively weaker for the scenarios in East or South China. Besides, although the patterns of deviation are similar in El Niño and La Niña years, the interannual difference of the deviation is still obvious in some parts of North China and coastal areas. The different deviation seemingly results from defects in the models themselves, such as their physical processes, cumulus convection parameterizations, representation of solid precipitation, topography treatment, and spatial resolution. The deviation reveals that there would be severe uncertainty if estimating China precipitation directly using CMIP5 model outputs. Hence, it is necessary to estimate the uncertainty before using the output data, so as to reduce the potential risk for users or decision-makers responsible for future development plans. |
| |
| Keywords: | China precipitation CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios Ensemble estimate Deviation analysis |
| 本文献已被 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《大气科学》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《大气科学》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
