| 2010年我国夏季降水异常气候成因分析及预测 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 赵俊虎,封国林,王启光,等.2010年我国夏季降水异常气候成因分析及预测[J].大气科学,2011,35(6):1069-1078. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 赵俊虎 封国林 王启光 等 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.兰州大学大气科学学院, 兰州 730000;国家气候中心气候研究开放实验室, 北京 100081 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目40930952、41105055, 公益性行业科研专项GYHY200806005、GYHY201006021, 国家科技支撑计划2007BAC29B01、2009BAC51B04 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 对2010年我国夏季降水实况和预测进行回顾,笔者认为优化多因子汛期降水客观定量化预测方法因子组合中缺少前冬海温和积雪等外强迫因子可能是导致部分地区预测失败的主要原因,通过2010年夏季降水异常的气候成因诊断分析并结合诊断同报的结果论证了这一判断.同时发现前冬海温和积雪异常的气候背景下,亚洲夏季风系统各成员均发生不同程度...
|
| 关 键 词： | 汛期降水 预测 诊断分析 海温距平 西太平洋副高异常 |
Cause and Prediction of Summer Rainfall Anomaly Distribution in China in 2010 |
| |
| ZHAO Junhu,FENG Guolin,WANG Qiguang and et al.Cause and Prediction of Summer Rainfall Anomaly Distribution in China in 2010[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2011,35(6):1069-1078. |
| |
| Authors: | ZHAO Junhu FENG Guolin WANG Qiguang and |
| |
| Institution: | 1.College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000;Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 1000812.Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 1000813.College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 |
| |
| Abstract: | In reviewing both the observed and predicted summer rainfall in China in 2010, the authors have proposed a judgment that the lack of external forcing factors such as pre-winter sea temperature and snow when using the objective and quantitative prediction method of summer precipitation based on changeable configuration of optimal multi-factors may lead to forecast failure in some regions. Through the diagnostic analysis of possible climate causes of abnormal summer precipitation combined with the results of hindcast, the authors have verified this judgment. In addition, abnormality occurs in varying degrees within each member of Asian summer monsoon system in the context of pre-winter sea temperature and snow anomalies, and the western Pacific subtropical high is the most significant, which mainly induces the abnormal summer precipitation. At last, the authors put forth the possible ways to improve this prediction method. |
| |
| Keywords: | summer rainfall prediction diagnostic analysis sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) anomaly of the western Pacific subtropical high |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《大气科学》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《大气科学》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
