| 预测川渝地区汛期降水量的一种物理统计模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 马振锋,谭友邦.预测川渝地区汛期降水量的一种物理统计模型[J].大气科学,2004,28(1):138-145. |
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| 作者姓名： | 马振锋 谭友邦 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,成都,610072 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家"九五"科技攻关项目96-908-05-05专题和四川"九五"重大科技项目共同资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 应用川渝地区20个测站汛期(6～8月)降水距平百分率资料,分析了四川盆地汛期降水分布型及其形成的前期信号,提出了四川盆地汛期降水主要存在"东西振荡"、"一致分布"和"南北振荡"三类分布型.针对这三类典型的降水分布型,得到了川渝地区主汛期降水及其预测强信号的关系:春季西太平洋暖池强度偏强或上年秋冬季青藏高原位势高度场偏高时,当年川渝地区主汛期降水表现为西多东少,反之,则表现为西少东多.即出现了"东西振荡型";1～3月西风带极锋锋区位置偏北或上年冬春季青藏高原地区100hPa位势高度场偏低时,当年川渝地区主汛期降水偏多,反之,则降水偏少.即出现了"一致分布型".上年夏季西风环流强度指数偏强时,当年川渝地区主汛期降水表现为南多北少,反之,则表现为南少北多.即出现了"南北振荡型".利用这些强信号作因子场,在引入"方差权重"思想的基础上,建立了预测川渝地区主汛期降水的一种物理统计模型.通过对1996～2001年共6年的实际业务预报,预测效果令人满意.
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| 关 键 词： | 主汛期 降水分布 强信号 物理统计 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-9895(2004)01-0138-08 |
A Physical Statistic Model for Predicting the Rainfall during Flood Season in Sichuan-Chongqing Region |
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| MA Zhen-Feng and TAN You-Bang.A Physical Statistic Model for Predicting the Rainfall during Flood Season in Sichuan-Chongqing Region[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2004,28(1):138-145. |
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| Authors: | MA Zhen-Feng and TAN You-Bang |
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| Abstract: | By using 20 meteorology stations anomaly percentage of rainfall data in Sichuan and Chongqing area from June to August, the rainfall distribution patterns of Sichuan basin and its early signals are analyzed. Three rainfall distribution patterns are found in Sichuan basin in main flood period, which are east-west-oscillation, consistent-distribution and south-north-oscillation patterns. According to the three rainfall distribution patterns the relationship between main flood period rainfall in Sichuan-Chongqing region and their signals are as follows: The rainfall of main flood season is more in west and less in east in Sichuan-Chongqing region when the western Pacific warm pool intensity is stronger in spring or the autumn-to-winter geopotential height over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in last year was higher than normal. Otherwise the rainfall is more in east and less in west. So the east-west-oscillation pattern appears. The rainfall of main flood season is more in Sichuan-Chongqing region when Jan-to-Mar westerlies polar front position tended to be more north or the the winter-to-spring geopotential height on 100hPa over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in last year was lower than normal. Otherwise the rainfall tend to be less. So the consistent-distribution pattern appears. The rainfall of main flood season is more in south and less in north in Sichuan-Chongqing region when westerlies intensity index is higher in summer of last year. Otherwise the rainfall is more in north and less in south. So the south-north-oscillation pattern appears. By using these strong signals as factor field and basing on the variance weighing, the physical statistic model to predict the rainfall of Sichuan-Chongqing region in main flood season is developed. The result is very confident according to the applicable prediction during year 1996 to 2001. |
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| Keywords: | main flood season rainfall distribution intensity signal physical statistics |
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