| 华北水资源年代际变化及其与全球变暖之间的关联 |
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| 引用本文： | 张书萍,祝从文,周秀骥.华北水资源年代际变化及其与全球变暖之间的关联[J].大气科学,2014,38(5):1005-1016. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张书萍 祝从文 周秀骥 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象科学研究院, 北京100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目41221064，中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务项目Z2010Z001、Z2010Z003、2013Z002，中国科学院碳专项XDA05090408 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文利用1951～2011 年期间中国台站资料、东亚地区的探空资料、NCEP/NCAR 和ERA40 等大气再分析资料，通过对水分平衡方程诊断探讨了华北地区过去60 年中水资源和可利用降水量的变化特征及其与大尺度环流变化之间的关系。结果发现，华北地区69%的降水量被蒸发，可利用降水仅仅为降水量的31%。夏季可利用降水是华北水资源的主要来源，华北夏季可利用降水量在80 年代初发生突变减少，进入21 世纪初，伴随蒸发量的增加该地区可利用降水量进一步减少。西风带水汽与东亚夏季风水汽是华北可利用降水的主要来源。NCAR/NCEP 和EAR40 再分析资料的结果均显示贝加尔湖一带的位势高度偏低和西太平洋高压的偏强有利于该地区降水增多。利用探空资料进一步证明，蒙古以及贝加尔湖地区的温度在对流层低层变暖和位势高度场的加强导致了过去几十年华北可利用降水量减少。由于贝加尔湖地区温度变化与全球变暖存在密切关联，监测该地区温度的变化对预测华北水资源和东亚夏季风的长期变化具有重要的意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 华北水资源 可利用降水 年代际变化 全球变暖 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013/7/30 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2014/1/24 0:00:00 |
Decadal Variability of Water Resources in North China and Its Linkage to Global Warming |
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| ZHANG Shuping,ZHU Congwen and ZHOU Xiuji.Decadal Variability of Water Resources in North China and Its Linkage to Global Warming[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2014,38(5):1005-1016. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Shuping ZHU Congwen and ZHOU Xiuji |
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| Institution: | Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of the water budget equation, we discuss the decadal variability of water resources and available precipitation in North China, and address its link to boreal large-scale circulation and global warming between 1951 and 2011. The data sets utilized include monthly station-observed surface air temperature and precipitation, sounding-observed air temperature and geopotential height, and NCEP/NCAR and ERA40 reanalyzed atmospheric components. Our results suggest that annual average evaporation accounts for 69% of the total water resource in contrast to 31% by the available precipitation in North China. Most of North China's water resources come from the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) season. The water resources in this region exhibit an obvious decadal decrease around the 1980s, and drops further in the first decade of 21st century with the increase of local evaporation. Analysis suggests that westerly winds and the EASM jointly supply the water resources in North China, and the lower and higher geopotential height (GPH) around Lake Baikal and the western North Pacific may enhance water resources in this region. This is clearly supported by the NCEP/NCAR and ERA40 reanalyzed data sets, but also by the atmospheric sounding over East Asia. Evidence indicates that the global warming-related low-level warming that caused an anomalous anti-cyclone around Lake Baikal resulted in a decrease in water resources in North China. Therefore monitoring the surface air temperature around Lake Baikal may provide a good indicator for long-term forecasting of water resources and the EASM. |
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| Keywords: | Water resource in North China Available precipitation Decadal variability Global warming |
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