| 500 hPa温度场时间序列的年代际突变过程统计特征 |
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| 引用本文： | 颜鹏程,封国林,侯威,吴浩.500 hPa温度场时间序列的年代际突变过程统计特征[J].大气科学,2014,38(5):861-873. |
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| 作者姓名： | 颜鹏程 封国林 侯威 吴浩 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.兰州大学大气科学学院, 兰州730000;中国气象局国家气候中心, 北京100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目41175067，国家重点基础研究发展计划项目2012CB955901、2013CB430204 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文利用Logistic 模型，推导出描述均值突变的分段函数，用该函数对可能存在突变的时间序列进行拟合，并结合概率分布理论，确定突变幅度最大的时段即为发生突变的过程，由此确定并分析序列中突变的开始时刻、突变幅度、突变变率、突变持续时间、系统不稳定特性等参数。对全球500 hPa 温度场单点时间序列的突变持续过程展开研究:（1）对突变过程的开始时刻进行统计，发现1956～1959、1970～1979、1986～1994、1994～2004 年开始的突变所占比重较大，几次突变过程中，平均来看除了1986～1994 年开始的突变表现为降温，其余几次突变均表现为增温；并且每次突变时，增温幅度比较大的突变，其变率也较大；（2）从突变先后的空间分布上看，1956～1959、1970～1979 年检测到发生突变的格点在海洋上空的突变偏早、欧亚大陆上空偏晚，而1986～1994 和1994～2004 年突变期间这一情况正好相反；（3）针对每次突变过程中的突变幅度，低纬度区域温度发生突变的变化幅度较小、高纬度区域较大；（4）对突变持续时间的检测结果表明，在全球增暖背景下，完成一次突变的持续时间正在逐渐变短；（5）当系统突变正在进行时，系统的不稳定性较强。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候突变 500 hPa 温度场 突变过程 持续时间 不稳定性 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013/1/10 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 3/5/2014 12:00:00 AM |
Statistical Characteristics on Decadal Abrupt Change Process of Time Sequence in 500 hPa Temperature Field |
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| YAN Pengcheng,FENG Guolin,HOU Wei and WU Hao.Statistical Characteristics on Decadal Abrupt Change Process of Time Sequence in 500 hPa Temperature Field[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2014,38(5):861-873. |
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| Authors: | YAN Pengcheng FENG Guolin HOU Wei and WU Hao |
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| Institution: | 1.College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000;National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 1000812.National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081;Department of Physics, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 2250023.National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, we fit the time series, which likely has abrupt change processes (ACP), with piecewise function deducing for describing the mean abrupt change from the logistic model. Thus combined with the theory of probability distribution formed the basis for considering the process in which abrupt change amplitude is maximum, as is the ACP. The parameters reflecting the beginning moment of the abrupt change, abrupt change amplitude, abrupt change rate, persistence time, and instability are determined and analyzed. By testing the time series in a 500 hPa temperature field during the period 1948-2012, we determine the following results: (1) Abrupt changes started in 1956-1959, 1970-1979, 1986-1994, and 1994-2004. We considered more probabilities by testing the start moment of the ACP. In these changes,the temperatures of all changes in the means show increases except for that in 1986-1994, and the rate increases if the abrupt change amplitude is large. (2) In spatial distribution of the abrupt change moment, the moment of the grid points in which the abrupt change occurred in 1956-1959 and 1970-1979 above the sea occurred earlier than that in the grid points above Eurasia, whereas the abrupt changes in 1986-1994 and in 1994-2004 show opposite behavior. (3) The abrupt change amplitude of temperature occurring in low latitudes is lower than that occurring in high latitudes. (4) Under the context of global warming, the statistics distribution of the persistence time shows that an increasing number of grid points require shore time to complete an abrupt change. (5) During the abrupt change process, the instability of the system was enhanced significantly. |
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| Keywords: | Abrupt climate change 500 hPa temperature field Abrupt change process Persist time Instability |
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