| 基于雷达回波最大重叠率的一种临近降水预报方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 李建通,高守亭,郭林.基于雷达回波最大重叠率的一种临近降水预报方法[J].大气科学,2011,35(3):519-530. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李建通 高守亭 郭林 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.厦门市气象局, 厦门,361012;中国科学院研究生院, 北京,100049;中国科学院大气物理研究所云降水物理与强风暴实验室, 北京,100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 科技部社会公益研究专项2002DIB200640 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于天气雷达的临近降水预报是雷达短时预报业务系统的重要组成部分,本文在回顾雷达临近降水预报技术发展的基础上,充分考虑新一代天气雷达高时间、空间分辨率的优点,提出两个相邻时刻雷达回波具有最大重叠率的移向、移速是与降水系统整体的移向、移速密切相关的论点,再用此移向、移速对当前雷达回波进行平移,最后采用九点平均的回波生消模型...
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| 关 键 词： | 最大重叠率 临近降水预报 时间权重合成 初值场 |
The Nowcasting Method of Precipitation Based on the Maximum Overlap Rate of Radar Echo |
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| Li Jiantong,Gao Shouting and Guo Lin.The Nowcasting Method of Precipitation Based on the Maximum Overlap Rate of Radar Echo[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2011,35(3):519-530. |
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| Authors: | Li Jiantong Gao Shouting and Guo Lin |
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| Institution: | 1.Xiamen Meteorological Bureau, Xiamen,361012;Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing,100049;Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storm, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing,1000292.Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storm, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing,1000293.Xiamen Meteorological Bureau, Xiamen,361012 |
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| Abstract: | The nowcasting method of precipitation based on the maximum overlap rate is an important part of short-term forecast radar system. On the basis of recalling the development of the radar nowcasting technology of precipitation, considering the merits of a new generation of weather radar with high spatial and temporal resolution, this paper proposes that within a short time interval, the moving direction and speed of the two adjacent radar echos with the greatest overlap rate are also the moving direction and speed of the precipitation system. The current radar echoes are translated by calculating the moving direction and speed, and are revised by use of nine-point average change amounts of echo dissipation model to form extrapolation forecasting; by use of the time weights synthesis method, the extrapolation forecasting every six minutes is synthesized to form the precipitation nowcasting field. In order to test the above-mentioned methods, the data at Hefei, Nanchang, Xiamen radar stations are used to carry out the calculation and prediction. The results show that: the moving direction and speed with the maximum overlap rate at two moments may reflect the overall movement characteristics of precipitation system, the calculation result is consistent with the subjective forecasting of forecasters and moreover it is objective, fine, and stable; using the growth and decay model to revise the translated echo can reflect the actual precipitation change; the 1-hour precipitation distribution which is synthesized by using precipitation forecasting every six minutes with the time weights synthesis method is in good agreement with the actual one. |
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| Keywords: | maximum overlap rate precipitation nowcasting time weight synthesis initial field |
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