| 两种温室气体排放情景下中国汛期江淮暴雨低涡特征研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 苗春生,徐方姝,王坚红,余钟奇,高义梅,张旭.两种温室气体排放情景下中国汛期江淮暴雨低涡特征研究[J].大气科学,2016,40(2):257-270. |
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| 作者姓名： | 苗春生 徐方姝 王坚红 余钟奇 高义梅 张旭 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 南京 210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目41276033,国家科技支撑项目2012BAH05B01,公益性行业(气象)专项项目GYHY201206068,中国气象局气候变化专项江苏气候变化评估CCSF201318,江苏科技支撑项目BE2012774、BE2014729,江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文基于一个水平分辨率为50 km的区域气候模式RegCM4(Regional Climate Model,version 4.0)的模拟与预估结果,对我国汛期江淮暴雨低涡在气候变化背景下的统计特征与合成结构进行分析,进一步对两种温室排放情景下未来中国汛期的江淮暴雨低涡特征进行预估。结果表明:RegCM4模式对环境要素及低涡都具有一定的模拟能力,低涡的伸展高度、生命期及暴雨位置模拟结果与观测较为接近,但模拟的低涡个数、最大暖区高度以及温、湿要素分布均比实际略偏低,而风速和低涡的强度模拟则偏强;在未来两种温室排放情景预估方面, RCP4.5(Representative Concentration Pathways,简称RCP)典型浓度排放情景下,暴雨低涡数量比例减少,强度减弱,但低涡发展高度仍以850 hPa为主,生命期多为2 d以内,低涡雨区分布及最大暖区高度均与历史时段相近;RCP8.5情景下,暴雨低涡比例明显大于RCP4.5情景,低涡发展高度以700 hPa为主,生命期达3 d的增多,强度增强,最大暖区厚度范围显著伸展。两种情景下均有低涡中温度锋区减弱,而湿度锋区增强,但RCP8.5情景减弱与增强更显著,显示更高的温室气体排放将导致未来出现更强的暴雨低涡,造成伴随暴雨的低涡灾害性天气的增加,因此应进一步深化对低涡暴雨灾害性天气发展趋势的研究。
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| 关 键 词： | RegCM4(RegionalClimateModel version4.0)模式 典型浓度温室排放情景 江淮汛期 暴雨低涡 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015/1/13 0:00:00 |
Characteristics of Heavy Rainfall Vortexes during the Flood Season in Jiang-Huai Valley under Two Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios |
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| MIAO Chunsheng,XU Fangshu,WANG Jianhong,YU Zhongqi,GAO Yimei and ZHANG Xu.Characteristics of Heavy Rainfall Vortexes during the Flood Season in Jiang-Huai Valley under Two Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2016,40(2):257-270. |
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| Authors: | MIAO Chunsheng XU Fangshu WANG Jianhong YU Zhongqi GAO Yimei and ZHANG Xu |
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| Institution: | Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044,Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044;Liaoning Province Meteorological Service Center, Shenyang 110166,Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044,Pudong New Area Meteorological Bureau of Shanghai Meteorological Service, Shanghai 200135,Huafeng Meteorological Media Group, Beijing 100081 and Huafeng Meteorological Media Group, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | The aim of this study was to analyze the statistical and structure evolutive characteristics of heavy rainfall vortexes during the flood season in Jiang-Huai valley, China, against the background of climate change, and to provide projections under two emission scenarios for the period 2020-2030, by using the regional climate model RegCM4(Regional Climate Model, version 4.0) with a horizontal resolution of 50 km.The results showed that RegCM4 can capture the environmental aspects and characteristics of this vortex type reasonably well.The simulated outputs were similar to reality in several ways, including vertical development height, lifetime, and the relative rainstorm position of the vortex.However, the simulated results were lower with respects to the number and the warmest section height of the vortex, and the background temperature and humidity, while the intensity of the vortex and velocity were higher.In terms of projection for the period 2020-2030, under the RCP4.5(Representative Concentration Pathways) scenario, the proportion of vortexes with rainstorms was shown to decrease;the vertical development height of the vortex was mainly at 850 hPa;and the life span was mostly within 2 days.The distribution of heavy rainfall and the warmest zone height were close to those in the historical period, but the intensity was weaker.Meanwhile, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the percentage of vortexes with rainstorms was projected to be greater than that under the RCP4.5 scenario;the vertical development height of the vortex was mainly at 700 hPa;the vortexes with the life span of 3 days increased;the vortex intensity enhanced;and the thickness of the warmest zone extended significantly.The moisture fronts in the vortex strengthened, but temperature fronts weakened.The study reveals that more severe vortex precipitation may occur in the future under higher greenhouse gas emissions.Further research is therefore needed on the development trends of low vortexes with severe rainfall. |
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| Keywords: | Model RegCM4(Regional Climate Model version 4 0) Greenhouse gas Emission scenarios Flood season Jiang-Huai valley Heavy rainfall vortex |
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