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一个基于打靶法的大气污染源反演自适应算法
引用本文:冯帆,王自发,唐晓.一个基于打靶法的大气污染源反演自适应算法[J].大气科学,2016,40(4):719-729.
作者姓名:冯帆  王自发  唐晓
作者单位:1.中国科学院大气物理研究所大气边界层物理和大气化学国家重点实验室, 北京 100029;中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
基金项目:中国科学院战略性先导灰霾专项XDB05030200
摘    要:污染源反演对大气污染预报及控制有重要意义。目前普遍采用的源反演统计方法存在对观测误差、源清单先验估计误差敏感等弱点。基于打靶法思想的各种算法以其精度高、程序简单、实用性强的特点被广泛应用于系统控制领域。本文提出的基于打靶法思想的大气污染源反演自适应算法在精度高、算法简明的基础上弥补了统计方法的不足:能处理源清单中的大误差、初值大误差、观测值在个别时间点的大误差;无需先验分布假设及误差估计。本文还以简单模型的理想试验为例,展示了该自适应算法的计算效果。

关 键 词:打靶法    污染源    反演    自适应    系统控制
收稿时间:2015/1/19 0:00:00

Development of an Adaptive Algorithm Based on the Shooting Method and Its Application in the Problem of Estimating Air Pollutant Emissions
FENG Fan,WANG Zifa and TANG Xiao.Development of an Adaptive Algorithm Based on the Shooting Method and Its Application in the Problem of Estimating Air Pollutant Emissions[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2016,40(4):719-729.
Authors:FENG Fan  WANG Zifa and TANG Xiao
Institution:1.State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 1000492.State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
Abstract:The inversion of pollutant emissions is important in air pollution prediction and control. The statistical methods generally adopted possess weaknesses, such as sensitivity for observation error and prior estimation of emissions. Given their simplicity, high precision, and practicality, algorithms based on the shooting method are widely used in the field of systems control. In this paper, we derive a shooting method-based adaptive algorithm to estimate air pollutant emissions. Besides its high precision and simple procedure, this adaptive algorithm compensates for the weaknesses of statistical methods. It is able to deal with the large level of error in the emissions inventory, initial conditions, and observations; a prior distribution assumption and error estimation are not required. Simulations of a simple system are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of this adaptive algorithm.
Keywords:Shooting method  Pollutant emissions  Inversion  Adaptive algorithm  Systems control
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