| 近年来我国短期气候预测中动力相似预测方法研究与应用进展 |
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| 引用本文： | 李维京,郑志海,孙丞虎.近年来我国短期气候预测中动力相似预测方法研究与应用进展[J].大气科学,2013,37(2):341-350. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李维京 郑志海 孙丞虎 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气候中心,北京,100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划2013CB430200、2010CB950501,国家自然科学基金资助项目41105070 |
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| 摘 要： | 鉴于当前短期气候预测中,纯粹使用动力学方法尚不能完全满足气候预测业务的需要,因此有必要在策略上采取动力和统计相结合的办法.在具体实现手段上,简要介绍了从历史资料中提炼预测信息,发展了一种基于历史相似误差订正的相似—动力短期气候预测新方法.分别在月、季节以及ENSO等短期气候预测领域相继开展了试验和应用,取得了—些令人鼓舞的初步结果,为下一步深入开展有关短期气候预测科学的研究提供了些许借鉴.
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| 关 键 词： | 短期气候预测 动力相似 预报误差 |
| 收稿时间： | 2012/10/13 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2012/11/15 0:00:00 |
Improvements to dynamical analogue climate prediction method in China |
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| LI Weijing,ZHENG Zhihai and SUN Chenghu.Improvements to dynamical analogue climate prediction method in China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2013,37(2):341-350. |
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| Authors: | LI Weijing ZHENG Zhihai and SUN Chenghu |
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| Institution: | National Climate Center, Beijing 100081;National Climate Center, Beijing 100081;National Climate Center, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | Because the dynamical climate prediction model is ineffective for skillful forecasting on a weekly to intra-annual scale in the East Asia region, the combination of a dynamical and statistical prediction method has been suggested as an optimal strategy. To realize the technique, a forecasting error correction method by utilizing historical analogue information was developed in China. The current applications show that this new method can significantly improve prediction skill in extended range, monthly, seasonal, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction and hence have encouraged us to further explore operational applications for this method in the future. |
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| Keywords: | Short-range climate prediction Dynamical analogue Forecasting error |
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