| 1991年夏季苏皖地区洪涝的短期气候距平预测试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 李旭,袁重光,曾庆存.1991年夏季苏皖地区洪涝的短期气候距平预测试验[J].大气科学,1997,21(3):266-272. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李旭 袁重光 曾庆存 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京 100080 |
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| 基金项目： | 本研究得到了国家攀登计划A“气候动力学及气候预测理论的研究”、中国科学院KY85—10项目、气候和环境预测研究中心及大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室的支持 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文叙述了用多种方案对1991年夏主要发生在我国江苏、安徽两省的持续性多雨气候进行的跨季度预测试验研究的情况。试验用完全的海气耦合方案、大气模式并保持初始SSTA方案、考虑皮纳图博火山作用、模式系统误差订正以及它们的组合等进行，得到了比较好的预测结果。
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| 关 键 词： | 短期气候距平 降水距平百分率 |
Prediction Experiments of the Short-Term Climate Anomalies for 1991 Summer Severe Flood in Jiangsu and Anhui Areas |
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| Li Xu,Yuan Chongguang and Zeng Qingcun.Prediction Experiments of the Short-Term Climate Anomalies for 1991 Summer Severe Flood in Jiangsu and Anhui Areas[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1997,21(3):266-272. |
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| Authors: | Li Xu Yuan Chongguang and Zeng Qingcun |
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| Abstract: | There occurred a presistent rainy climate in the area of Jangsu and Anhui provinces in 1991 summer. In this paper, the extra-seasonal prediction experiments for this rainy climate with several schemes are described. The following factors are considered in the experiments: (1) the fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean model; (2) the AGCM with the SST anomaly in the initial month; (3) the consideration of the impact of Pintubo vocano; (4) the correction of systemaatic errors in models; and (5) the combination of the above schemes. As a result, the flood and drought have been predicted correctly. |
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| Keywords: | short-term climate anomaly percentage of precipitation anomaly |
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