| 不同区域海温异常对中国夏季旱涝影响的诊断研究和预测试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 王蕾,张人禾.不同区域海温异常对中国夏季旱涝影响的诊断研究和预测试验[J].大气科学,2006,30(6):1147-1159. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王蕾 张人禾 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.国家气象中心,北京,100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划);国家自然科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用季降水异常的典型集合相关预测模式, 研究了前期和同期不同季节全球海表温度距平场与中国夏季旱涝的遥相关分布特征以及这种相关型随季节的变化, 揭示了全球海温的异常变化在中国夏季旱涝中的信号特征.研究表明, 全球不同区域海温对我国夏季降水的影响存在着明显的季节差异.全球特定的海温分布可以作为中国夏季旱涝预报的信号因子.选取不同区域及不同时段的海温场作为因子场分别对1998、 1999年这两个典型年份的我国夏季降水进行了诊断研究和预测试验, 并通过不同区域海温的影响权重做集成预测.试验结果表明:不同区域海温的集成预测不仅可以有效地提高预测的准确性, 而且可以揭示不同时段不同区域海温的异常变化在夏季旱涝中的强信号现象.
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| 关 键 词： | 典型集合相关预测模式 海表温度异常 中国夏季旱涝 遥相关 最优集成预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-9895（2006）06-1147-13 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-09-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-09-032006-03-13 |
Diagnostic Researches and Forecasting Experiments of the Various Regional Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly on Summer Precipitation in China |
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| WANG Lei and ZHANG Ren-He.Diagnostic Researches and Forecasting Experiments of the Various Regional Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly on Summer Precipitation in China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2006,30(6):1147-1159. |
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| Authors: | WANG Lei and ZHANG Ren-He |
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| Institution: | 1 National Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081; 2 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | Based on a canonical ensemble correlation prediction(CECP) model for seasonal precipitation anomaly,diagnostic analyses and forecast experiments are conducted on JJA(June,July and August) precipitation in China,using various seasons and different regional sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA) as predictor fields.The results show that the CECP scheme with an area-factor is a useful method for both researches and predictions,which not only can make out some typical spacial patterns in the precipitation and sea surface temperature(SST) fields,but also has high forecast skill on summer precipitation in China.The teleconnection characteristics between global SSTA in various seasons and summer(JJA) precipitation in China are analyzed.The analyses show that the impacts of global SSTA on summer precipitation in China have significant seasonal changes.Particularly,SST anomaly distributions in the southern Indian Ocean,the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean have good correlation with summer precipitation in China.The special global SSTA distribution pattern might be used as a predictor of JJA precipitation in China. In addition,selecting different regional and various seasonal SSTA as predictor fields,diagnostic analyses and forecast experiments are conducted on JJA precipitation in 1998 and 1999 respectively,and then their individual impacts on JJA precipitation in China are weighted to combine optimally the forecasting results.The series tests show that ensemble prediction of various regional SSTA on summer precipitation in China can not only greatly increase predictability of summer precipitation in China,but also uncover the notable signals of SSTA in different regions and various seasons associated with the regional drought/flood of summer in China.Thus,the ensemble forecast method can reveal the contributions of interannual changes of SST in different areas to summer precipitation in China,optimal combination prediction can efficiently improve forecasting skill. |
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| Keywords: | canonical ensemble correlation prediction(CECP) model sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) summer drought/flood in China teleconnection ensemble prediction |
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