| 印度洋和南海海温与长江中下游旱涝 |
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| 引用本文： | 张琼,刘平,吴国雄.印度洋和南海海温与长江中下游旱涝[J].大气科学,2003,27(6):992-1006. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张琼 刘平 吴国雄 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京,100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院资源环境领域知识创新工程ZKCX2-SW-210、国家重点基础研究发展规划项目G1998040900和国家自然科学基金资助项目40005006、40135020共同资助. |
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| 摘 要： | 作者统计分析了1958～1999年42年长江中下游地区夏季5～8月旱涝事件的分布特征.结果表明,42年中旱涝月出现频次相等,但洪涝强度远大于干旱强度.对比分析旱涝月的环流异常和海温异常(SSTA)发现,南海地区SSTA和对流层低层经向风异常均与长江中下游旱涝显著相关,尤其正SSTA和涝月的关系更为密切,因此南海SSTA为我国长江中下游地区旱涝的一个强讯号.进一步分析发现,夏季南海SSTA与前春赤道南印度洋SSTA存在显著相关,可将其作为预报因子.最后得到的预报思路为:当前春赤道南印度洋海温异常偏暖,则夏季南海海温异常偏暖,南海低空出现异常偏南风,异常多的水汽向我国南方输送,长江中下游地区易涝;反之当前春南印度洋海温异常偏冷,夏季南海海温亦异常偏冷,南海低空出现异常偏北风,向北输送水汽偏少,长江中下游易旱.
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| 关 键 词： | 旱涝 海温异常 年际变化 |
The Relationship between the Flood and Drought over the Lower Reach of the Yangtze River Valley and the SST over the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea |
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| Zhang Qiong,Liu Ping and Wu Guoxiong.The Relationship between the Flood and Drought over the Lower Reach of the Yangtze River Valley and the SST over the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2003,27(6):992-1006. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Qiong Liu Ping and Wu Guoxiong |
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| Abstract: | The variabilities of the summertime flood and drought events over the lower reach of the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) are examined in this paper by employing monthly mean observation data from 1958 to 1999. The results show that the frequency of occurrence of the flood and drought month is approximately equivalent. However, the disaster intensity of the flood is much severer than that of the drought. The composites for circulation anomaly and sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) show that both the low level meridional wind anomaly and SSTA over the South China Sea (SCS) are significantly correlated to the flood and drought over the YRV. In particular, the flood months are mostly in correspondence with the positive SSTA over the SCS. Thus the SSTA over the SCS is then considered as a strong anomalous signal for the flood and drought over the YRV. The further correlation analysis detects that the SSTA over the southern equatorial Indian Ocean can be used as a prediction signal for the summer SSTA over the SCS. Therefore, the anomalous warm SST over the southern equatorial Indian Ocean in preceding spring will be followed by the anomalous warm SST over the SCS in the following summer, then the anomalous northward wind will be enhanced over the SCS and more moisture will be transferred to south China, which will probably result in the flood event over the YRV. |
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| Keywords: | flood and drought sea surface temperature anomaly interannual variability |
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