| 两种再分析资料中夏季地表气温与中国测站资料的差异 |
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| 引用本文： | 高庆九,管兆勇,蔡佳熙,等.两种再分析资料中夏季地表气温与中国测站资料的差异[J].大气科学,2010,34(3):471-482. |
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| 作者姓名： | 高庆九 管兆勇 蔡佳熙 等 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,南京,210044;南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,南京,210044;南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,南京,210044;南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,南京,210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划资助项目2007BAC29B02， 国家自然科学基金资助项目40675025， 江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划资助项目CX07B_047z， 江苏省高校自然科学研究计划资助项目08KJD170001 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用中国194站气温观测资料(OT)、NCEP/NCAR (NT) 和ERA-40 (ET) 再分析月平均2 m温度资料, 使用线性分析、 方差分析、 小波分析、 EOF等方法, 对三种温度资料周期、 方差以及年际和年代际变化进行对比分析。结果发现: (1) ET与OT数值、 距平及变化趋势非常接近; NT低于OT, 1965年以前其数值及距平与OT、 ET差异较大; ET与OT的相似性优于NT, 对地面温度变化进行周期分析时, 使用ET资料较好。在使用NT的原始资料时需慎重, 距平值在1965年之后有一定的可信度。 (2) ET与OT线性趋势以及空间模态类似, NT变化趋势远大于OT与ET, ET对我国温度长期变化趋势的再现能力优于NT, 在研究我国温度长期变化时NT具有不确定性。 (3) ET与NT均能反映我国温度的时空分布和变化特征, 但ET更加准确; 研究我国北方 (30°N以北) 温度年代际变化时, ET较好; 研究我国温度年际变化时两种资料能力相当。 (4) 三种温度资料均显示1976年前后我国地表气温有明显差异。ET与OT在1976年前后的变化及空间分布十分一致, NT与OT不完全一致。此外, 1965年之前的NCEP/NCAR温度资料存在类似于“PSFC”的问题, 使用时应慎重。
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| 关 键 词： | 观测资料 NCEP/NCAR ERA-40 地表气温 气候变率 |
Differences in 1958-2001 Summertime Surface Air Temperatures between Two Reanalysis Data and Observations in China |
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| GAO Qingjiu,GUAN Zhaoyong,CAI Jiaxi and et al.Differences in 1958-2001 Summertime Surface Air Temperatures between Two Reanalysis Data and Observations in China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2010,34(3):471-482. |
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| Authors: | GAO Qingjiu GUAN Zhaoyong CAI Jiaxi and |
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| Institution: | Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology, Nanjing, 210044 |
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| Abstract: | Based on in-situ observed summertime air temperatures (OT) from 194 stations in China, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis 2-m temperatures (NT) and ERA-40 reanalysis 2-m temperatures (ET) on a monthly basis, a study is performed of the periods, variance, interannual and interdecadal variability of these temperature series by means of linear analysis, variance and wavelet treatments as well as EOF decomposition. Results suggest that (1) the values, anomalies, and trends are very close between the ET and the OT; the NT are lower compared with the OT and prior to 1965 the NT magnitudes and anomalies differ significantly from those of the OT and the ET, with higher similarity of the ET to the OT than that of the NT. Thus, in making periodic analysis of surface temperature, the ET are superior. Caution should be taken when the NT are applied, but their departures are somewhat credible after 1965.(2) The ET have similar linear trend and spatial mode to the OT, the trend of the NT is much greater compared with those of the OT and the ET, and the ET have higher ability to reproduce temperature trends in China on a long-term basis than the NT, which show uncertainties in long-range temperature variations in China.(3) The ET and the NT are capable of revealing the spatio-temporal patterns and variations of temperatures in China, but the ET are more correct, especially when the interdecadal variability is investigated of the temperatures in northern China north of 30°N. It is found that the ET and the NT have comparable ability to show the interannual variations.(4) The differences before and after 1976 in China are obvious in the three temperature datasets, with almost identical (not entirely coincident) trends and spatial distributions between the ET (the NT) and the OT. In addition, the NT before 1965 have a drawback similar to that of “PSFC”, a problem that should not be ignored. |
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| Keywords: | observations NCEP/NCAR ERA-40 project surface temperature climatic variability |
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