| 气候的多平衡态及其转换 |
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| 引用本文： | 林贤超,李克让.气候的多平衡态及其转换[J].大气科学,1993,17(6):703-712. |
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| 作者姓名： | 林贤超 李克让 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院国家计委地理研究所，中国科学院国家计委地理研究所 北京 100101，北京 100101 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文利用一个简单的气候模式,求得三个平衡态的全球半均温度值分别为:T_1=248.5K,T_2=271.9K和T_3=288.1K,其中对应于温暖时期和寒冷时期的T_3和T_1是稳定的.若要使现代温暖气候转变为寒冷气候,太阳常数约需比现代值减少3％:若从寒冷气候转变成温暖气候,太阳常数需增加约6.3％.这表明寒冷气候的状态要比温暖气候的状态相对稳定些.然后讨论了随机扰动对气候半衡态之间转换的作用.结果表明:仅通过天气随机扰动的涨落效应不可能使气候系统实现冰期-间冰期之间10~5年周期尺度的转换.
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| 关 键 词： | 气候模式 多平衡态 随机扰动 |
The Multiple Equilibriums of Climate Systems and Their Transition |
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| Lin Xianchao and Li Kerang.The Multiple Equilibriums of Climate Systems and Their Transition[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1993,17(6):703-712. |
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| Authors: | Lin Xianchao and Li Kerang |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, based on a zero - dimensional energy balance model, three values of global average temperature corresponding to the steady state of model are obtained: T1 = 248. 5K, T2 = 271.9 K and T3 = 288.1 K. Among these equilibriums, T1 and T3, corresponding to cold and warm climate, respectively, are stable, and T2 is unstable. If solar constant decreased by 3%, climate would change from warm state to cold state. On the other hand, if solar constant increased by 6.3%, climate would change from cold state to warm state. It indicates that the cold climate is more stable than the warm climate. The investigation of stochastic climate models shows that it is impossible to make the conversion of glacial - interglacial climate with a time scale of about 10 years only with the stochastic fluctuations of weather disturbance. |
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| Keywords: | Climate model Multiple equilibriums Stochastic fluctuation |
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