| 多普勒天气雷达资料对中尺度模式短时预报的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 盛春岩,浦一芬,高守亭.多普勒天气雷达资料对中尺度模式短时预报的影响[J].大气科学,2006,30(1):93-107. |
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| 作者姓名： | 盛春岩 浦一芬 高守亭 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国科学院大气物理研究所云降水物理与强风暴实验室,北京,100029;山东省气象中心,济南,250031;中国科学院研究生院,北京,100039 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院资助项目;中国科学院科技攻关项目;山东省气象局资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用中尺度模式ARPS(The Advanced Regional Prediction System)及其资料分析系统ADAS(ARPS Data Analysis System),将国内新一代多普勒雷达(CINRAD)反射率及径向风资料直接用于中尺度数值模拟,通过一次华北地区暴雨过程的模拟对比试验,分析了雷达资料对初始场的改进效果及其对模拟结果的影响,结果表明:(1)利用雷达径向风资料对初始风场进行调整后,自近地面到对流层顶的u,v,w都发生了变化,调整后的初始风场在对流层中层变化最大.(2)利用雷达反射率进行微物理调整和云分析能调整初始场中的云水信息,使得雷达回波附近3 km以下的水汽混合比(qv)增加,4 km以下的雨水混合比(qr)增加,对流层(约10 km以下)的云水混合比(qc)增加,4～9 km的对流层上部云冰混合比(qi)和雪混合比(qs)增加.ADAS通过非绝热初始化调整温度场,从而得到了一个动力和热力上平衡的初始场.(3)模拟的1 h雨量与实况的对比表明,同时利用雷达反射率和径向风改进过的初始场能明显增强3 h内的降水强度和落区预报,改善中尺度数值模式短时定量降水预报.模拟的1 h流场对比分析表明,经雷达径向风调整后,能够在初始场中增加气旋性涡旋等中小尺度风信息,明显减少模式的spin-up时间.(4)通过对雷达径向风和反射率对模式初始场和模拟结果影响的对比分析发现,雷达径向风主要是改进初始风场,而雷达反射率主要是改进初始场中的湿度参数,增加初始场中云水等的含量,调整温度场.通过模拟的6 h降水对比发现,利用雷达径向风调整初始场后,对降水模拟有一定的改进,但效果不甚明显,而雷达反射率资料对定量降水预报改进效果明显,同时使用雷达径向风和反射率资料改进初始场后对降水的模拟效果最明显.
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| 关 键 词： | ARPS模式 雷达资料同化 初始场 3h短时预报 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-9895（2006）01-0093-15 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-10-19 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-10-192004-12-21 |
Effect of Chinese Doppler Radar Data on Nowcasting Output of Mesoscale Model |
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| SHENG Chun-Yan,PU Yi-Fen and GAO Shou-Ting.Effect of Chinese Doppler Radar Data on Nowcasting Output of Mesoscale Model[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2006,30(1):93-107. |
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| Authors: | SHENG Chun-Yan PU Yi-Fen and GAO Shou-Ting |
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| Institution: | 1 .Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029; 2 .Shandong Meteorological Center, Jinan 250031 3 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039 |
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| Abstract: | The Advanced Regional Prediction System(ARPS) is a multi-scale model developed by the Center for(Analysis) and Prediction of Storms(CAPS),the complex cloud analysis system in the ARPS data analysis system(ARPSDAS or ADAS) can construct a three-dimensional cloud in the initial field with Doppler radar reflectivity,cloud base and fraction,and satellite image data to adjust the initial cloud and rain water,and ADAS still can adjust the initial wind field directly with radar radial velocity.In order to test the effect of Doppler radar data on mesoscale model,a North China torrential rain event is studied with Chinese Doppler radar data only.Four control experiments are conducted.The 1st experiment is performed without Chinese Doppler radar data analysis,the 2nd is done with Doppler radar reflectivity only to construct a three-dimensional cloud analysis,the 3rd is conducted with radar radial velocity only to adjust the initial wind field,and the last experiment is done with both radar reflectivity and radial velocity.The main results are as follows: 1) The wind components u,v,and w in the initial field adjusted by Doppler radial velocity can be modified under 10 km near the radar observing range,and the most drastic modification of u,v happens in the central troposphere.2) Assimilation of Doppler radar reflectivity can increase the cloud and moisture contents in the strong reflectivity region of the initial field.The adjustment of the water vapor mixture ratio(q_(v)) is mainly below 3 km, the rainfall mixture ratio(q_(r)) below 4 km,cloud vapor mixture ratio(q_(c)) in the troposphere(below 10 km level) and cloud ice(q_(i)) and snow(q_(s)) mixture ratio at around 49 km level in the tro-(posphere.) Diabatic initialization of ADAS will adjust the temperature to balance the cloud microphysical adjustment.3) The comparison between simulated hourly rainfall and observations shows that the assimilation of both reflectivity and radial velocity can improve rainfall forecasting significantly,especially within 3 hours;while the comparison of simulated hourly streamline fields shows that radar radial velocity can increase the mesoscale wind circles in the initial fields and mitigate the model's spin-up time significantly.4) Comparison between radar radial velocity and reflectivity assimilation on the initial field and the simulation shows that Doppler radar radial velocity assimilation can mainly improve the initial wind field while radar reflectivity assimilation can increase the cloud and water contents in the initial field and adjust the temperature.Simulated 6-h rainfall indicates that radar reflectivity assimilation has greater positive effects than radial velocity on the rainfall simulation,although adding radial velocity data results in further improvement in the rain simulation. |
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| Keywords: | ARPS model Doppler radar data assimilation initial field 3-hour nowcasting |
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