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长江中下游汛期降水优化多因子组合客观定量化预测研究
引用本文:王启光,封国林,郑志海,等.长江中下游汛期降水优化多因子组合客观定量化预测研究[J].大气科学,2011,35(2):287-297.
作者姓名:王启光  封国林  郑志海  
作者单位:1.兰州大学大气科学学院, 兰州,730000
基金项目:公益性行业科研专项GYHY200806005、GYHY201106016,国家自然科学基金资助项目40875040、40930952、41005041,国家科技支撑计划2007BAC29B01、2009BAC51B04
摘    要:针对长江中下游区域汛期降水模式预报误差,利用历史资料的有用信息订正模式预报误差.根据国家气候中心预测室提供的74项环流特征量和美国国家海洋和大气管理局发布的40项气候指数,确定降水预报误差场的相似年份,利用相似年的降水误差场对模式结果进行相似误差订正,有别于传统的模式系统误差订正.研究发现,相似误差订正效果明显优于系统...

关 键 词:客观定量化预测  优化多因子组合  长江中下游汛期降水  模式预报误差

A Study of the Objective and Quantifiable Forecasting Based on Optimal Factors Combinations in Precipitation in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River in Summer
Wang Qiguang,Feng Guolin,Zheng Zhihai and et al.A Study of the Objective and Quantifiable Forecasting Based on Optimal Factors Combinations in Precipitation in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River in Summer[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2011,35(2):287-297.
Authors:Wang Qiguang  Feng Guolin  Zheng Zhihai and
Institution:1.College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou,7300002.Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081;Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing,1000293.Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081
Abstract:A new approach to improve precipitation in the Yangtze River in summer by using the useful historical data is suggested. The outcomes of the model can be improved by determining the years in which there are similar prediction error fields of precipitation based on 74 circulation characteristic indexes of Weather Diagnostic Forecasting Room of National Climate Center and 40 climate indexes of NOAA, and then the fields are integrated to revise the output errors of the model. The results show that the revised errors using the above method are better than system ones. On the basis of the above conclusions, the objective and quantifiable forecasting (OQF) technique can be established. The steps are selecting pre-factors, determining optimal factor combinations (OFC) of the analogy forecasting error fields, and using the method of weighted average integration. It shows that the technique of OQF based on OFC has a better prediction skill to the regression results of independent samples between 2003 and 2009. Finally, the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) of historical data in the error field is analyzed. It is found that the determining of the analogy error field in different years can be improved more, and the possible way to improve is to be discussed.
Keywords:objective and quantifiable forecasting  optimal factors combinations  the precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in summer  the error of model forecast
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