| 实际预报可预报性的时空依赖性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李志锦,纪立人.实际预报可预报性的时空依赖性分析[J].大气科学,1996,20(3):290-297. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李志锦 纪立人 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京 100080 |
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| 基金项目： | 本研究得到KY-85-10项目和大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室的资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文利用国家气象中心1990年1月1日至1992年2月29日的1～5 d、500 hPa高度场业务预报结果研究了不同球谐函数谱分量和经验正交函数(EOF)谱分量的可预报性。对球谐函数谱分量的研究表明可预报性并不是随着空间尺度的增加呈现单调的递减关系，主要表现为在总波数n等于5附近具有最大可预报性。可预报性主要依赖于总波数n，经卷大圆上的波数和纬向圆周上的波数对可预报性具有完全相同的重要意义。对EOF谱分量的分析表明，随着EOF指数(即序号数)的增大，可预报性依次减小。从EOF和球谐函数的关系发现前几个EOF分量正是对应着最可预报的球谐函数分量。进一步分析表明，最可预报的分量对应大气运动的慢变流型。这些结果对如何使用数值预报产品以及如何进行延伸预报具有重要意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 实际预报 可预报性 球谐函数谱 EOF谱 慢变流型 |
Analysis of the Dependence of Predictability on Spatial and Temporal Scales from Operational Forecasts |
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| Li Zhijin and Ji Liren.Analysis of the Dependence of Predictability on Spatial and Temporal Scales from Operational Forecasts[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1996,20(3):290-297. |
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| Authors: | Li Zhijin and Ji Liren |
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| Abstract: | The 1--day through 5--day forecasts of the 500 hPa height field made at the National Meteorological Center of China from the 1st January 1990 to the 29th February 1992 are used to examine the predictability of the spectral coefficients of spherical harmonics and empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) The analysis of spherical harmonics that the predictability does not increase monotonically with the increase of spatial scales, but the predictability is largest when total wave number n is about 5. The predictability dramatically depends on total wave number n, so zonal wave number and wave number a long the Merifional large circle are equally important. It is found through the examination of the EOFs that the predictability tends to decrease with the increase of the EOF index. The spherical harmonic decomposition of the EOFs shows that the leading EOFs consist of the spherical harmonics which are more predictable. It is also confirmed that the most predictable components are characterized by slow evolution. These results are importat to the application of forecast products and to extended--range forecasting. |
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| Keywords: | operational forecast predictability spectral coefficient of spherical harmonics spectral coefficient of the EOFs slowly evolving component |
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