| 近44年南京温度变化的特征及其可能原因的分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 唐国利,丁一汇.近44年南京温度变化的特征及其可能原因的分析[J].大气科学,2006,30(1):56-68. |
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| 作者姓名： | 唐国利 丁一汇 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,国家气候中心,北京,100081;中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京,100029;中国科学院研究生院,北京,100039 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家“十五”科技攻关项目课题“全球与中国气候变化的检测和预测”(2001BA611B-01)，中国气象局气候变化研究基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1957～2000年的气候观测资料,研究南京的平均温度、平均最高温度、平均最低温度和平均日较差及炎热日和寒冷日的变化趋势和特点,并分析可能的原因;以滁县和溧阳为对比城市站,分析了三种不同类型城市温度变化的异同.结果表明,近44年来南京平均温度显著上升,其中冬季增暖幅度最大,但夏季呈变凉趋势.与全国平均温度相比,线性变化趋势大体相似,但也存在一定差别.最高温度趋势与平均温度一致,夏季降温更为明显;最低温度除夏季外增暖都非常显著,表明气候变暖在最低温度上表现更加明显;年和各季日较差均明显减小;炎热日和寒冷日趋于减少,其开始和结束时间较以前有明显提前.大气环流系统的变异和调整可能是温度显著升高的直接原因.同样,长江中下游夏季降水天气增多、云量增加、日照时间减少以及伴随的温度下降可能也与环流系统的调整有关.南京与滁县、溧阳的温度差值分别为减小趋势或趋势变化不明显.三种类型城市增暖幅度的相对大小存在着年代际差异.由于不同类型城市间温度变化差异的复杂特点及其所反映出的城市化影响的复杂性,在研究温度变化和考虑城市化的影响时,不仅要考虑大城市,还应该充分注意中、小城市的发展所带来的影响.
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| 关 键 词： | 南京 城市 温度变化 长江 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-9895（2006）01-0056-13 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-10-29 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-10-292005-02-21 |
The Changes in Temperature and Its Possible Causes in Nanjing in Recent 44 Years |
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| TANG Guo-Li and DING Yi-Hui.The Changes in Temperature and Its Possible Causes in Nanjing in Recent 44 Years[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2006,30(1):56-68. |
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| Authors: | TANG Guo-Li and DING Yi-Hui |
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| Institution: | 1. Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 ;2.Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;3. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039 |
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| Abstract: | Based on the meteorological data during 19572000,the change trends and characteristics of temperature and its possible causes in Nanjing in recent 44 years have been analyzed and studied.By means of the comparison of temperature changes among Nanjing,Chuxian and Liyang,the temperature change of the different cities and their contrasts have been also analyzed and discussed.The results show that the temperature has increased remarkably in Nanjing in recent 44 years,with the most obvious warming occurring in winter,and a cooling trend in summer.Nanjing's linear trend is basically similar to all China's trend in mean temperature,but there is also some difference. The trend in maximum temperature is consistent with that of the mean temperature in Nanjing.It should be noticed particularly that the maximum temperature in summer has a more striking decrease.The fact that the increase in minimum temperature is especially remarkable shows that the effect of climate warming on the minimum temperature is more obvious than others.The annual and seasonal daily range are obviously decreasing,which indicates that Nanjing's climate tend to get milder.The main reason of daily range decreases is that the extent of warming in the minimum temperature is larger than that of the maximum temperature.In summer,however,a larger extent of decrease in maximum temperature is its major cause.The hot and cold days are decreasing,and the dates of the beginning and ending of hot days are obviously earlier in recent 22 years.The possible causes of the temperature change in Nanjing is closely related to the change of climate background.Then the increase of air temperature there is a response to the global warming and China's climate change.On the one hand,under the global warming,variation of general circulation that can cause China's climate to change is probably a direct cause of the increase of air temperature in Nanjing.In fact,the mean circulation makes intensity of East Asian winter monsoon decline,thus the temperature in winter has an obvious increase.On the other hand,the temperature has a close relation with other weather conditions in summer.Under the influence of general circulation,the stronger north wind anomaly in the lower troposphere in North China leads to the increase of rainfall and cloud fraction,as well as the decrease of sunshine time and temperature along the middle to lower reaches of the Changjiang River in recent 10 or more years.Thus the temperature in summer is on the decrease.Besides,the temperature differences between Nanjing and Chuxian have largely decreased,and the differences between Nanjing and Liyang have not had obvious change.The relative extents of warming in the different types of cities have some difference from decade to decade.The differences are probably related to the different population growth and economic development speed.According to comparison of the differences of temperature change in the different types of cities, it is not certain that the warming rates in the bigger cities are larger than those in the smaller cities.Because of the complexities of air temperature change in different cities and related urbanization effects,the impacts of large, middle and small cities on temperature change should all be considered when the change in temperature and the effects of urbanization are studied. |
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| Keywords: | Nanjing city air temperature change the Changjiang River |
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