| 青藏高原地面加热及上空环流场与东侧旱涝预测的关系 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 李跃清.青藏高原地面加热及上空环流场与东侧旱涝预测的关系[J].大气科学,2003,27(1):107-114. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 李跃清 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,成都,610072 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目G1998040900第一部分、四川省科技厅重点科技项目2000-03-21及国家"九五"科技攻关项目96-908-05-05专题共同资助 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 应用奇异值分解(SVD)技术研究了青藏高原地面加热场与高原上空100 hPa高度场及其东侧川渝地区夏季降水场的时空联系和旱涝预测的关系.结果表明:地面加热场与高度场的第一模态代表了两场间的主要耦合特征,具有高度的时空相关;前期青藏高原地面加热场通过影响后期高原上空100 hPa高度场,导致未来高原东侧川渝地区夏季降水异常;加热场-高度场-降水场之间的这种非同步关系,反映了川渝地区旱涝灾害的影响因子和物理成因; 前期高原地面加热场与前期100 hPa高度场SVD第一模态的变化,是高原东侧地区未来夏季旱涝异常的预测信号.并由此提出了一种基于SVD技术的旱涝预测思路.
|
| 关 键 词： | 青藏高原 大气环流 旱涝 奇异值分解 |
Surface Heating in the Tibetan Plateau and General Circulation over It and Their Relations with the Prediction of Drought-Flood at Its Eastern Side |
| |
| Li Yueqing.Surface Heating in the Tibetan Plateau and General Circulation over It and Their Relations with the Prediction of Drought-Flood at Its Eastern Side[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2003,27(1):107-114. |
| |
| Authors: | Li Yueqing |
| |
| Abstract: | Using Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) technique, the relationships between surface heating field in the Tibetan Plateau and 100 hPa height field and summer rainfall in Sichuan Province and Chongqing Municipality (SPCM) at its eastern side and the prediction of drought-flood are studied. The result shows that the first modes derived from SVD indicate the key coupled characteristics of the heating and the height fields with closely time-space correlation. The previous surface heating field in the Tibetan Plateau, by influencing 100 hPa height field over it, results in the anomalies of summer rainfall in SPCM at its eastern side. This asynchronous connection between heating and height and rainfall fields indicates the influence factors and physical reasons for drought-flood disaster in SPCM. The variation of the first modes derived from SVD with the previous surface heating field in the Tibetan Plateau and 100 hPa height field is a strong signal for the prediction of summer drought-flood anomalies in SPCM at the eastern side of the Tibetan Plateau. Thereby, it is put forward that a train of thought for prediction of drought-flood based on SVD technique. |
| |
| Keywords: | Tibetan Plateau atmospheric circulation drought-flood singular value decomposition |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《大气科学》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《大气科学》下载免费的PDF全文 |
